MSTR stock tumbled to $160 on Monday, shedding more than half its value from the 2025 high of $455 and roughly 70% from the all-time peak of $542. The sell-off hasn't stopped the company from doubling down on bitcoin purchases: Strategy spent $254 million last week to acquire 2,932 BTC at an average price of $90,000. Its total hoard now stands at 712,647 BTC, worth over $62 billion and representing 3.3% of the circulating supply.
Dilution Accelerates as Market NAV Drops Below 1
Strategy's relentless accumulation is funded by selling ordinary shares — a move that has diluted existing shareholders. Outstanding shares have surged from below 80 million in 2021 to 300 million today. The company's market net asset value (mNAV) has fallen below 1.0, a threshold that historically triggered a pause in share issuance. Yet the buying continues. The firm reported a $17 billion net loss in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Bitcoin Under Pressure: ETF Outflows and Bear Flag
Bitcoin itself is flashing warning signs. The price dropped to $87,000 on Monday, erasing year-to-date gains, while spot ETF outflows have accelerated. Technical analysis reveals a bear flag pattern on the daily chart — a steep vertical drop followed by a consolidation channel — typically a precursor to another leg lower. A deeper bitcoin sell-off would directly hit MSTR's portfolio value and stock price.
MSTR Technicals: Key Support Broken, $100 in Sight
The daily chart shows MSTR has decisively broken below the $228 support level (the March 2024 low). The stock trades below all major moving averages and has formed its own bear flag. The next logical target for sellers is the psychological $100 mark, implying a further 40% decline from current levels.