Core Prediction: HYPE 2028 Valuation Model
Multicoin Capital's latest research report presents a long-term valuation for Hyperliquid's native token HYPE, forecasting a base-case price of $319 by 2028—roughly 4x above current levels. The model is built on assumptions of protocol revenue growth, token supply deflation, and market share expansion.
Key Drivers: Mimicking Centralized Exchange Profit Model
According to the report, Hyperliquid's valuation is underpinned by its evolving profit model that closely mirrors that of centralized exchanges (CEXs). Key components include:
- High Trading Share: Hyperliquid commands a significant portion of perpetual DEX trading volume, generating stable fee income.
- 99% Revenue to Buyback & Burn: The protocol allocates 99% of its revenue to repurchasing HYPE on the open market and subsequently burning it, creating a persistent deflationary effect and reducing circulating supply.
- HIP-3 Market-Making Deployment: Through proposal HIP-3, Hyperliquid introduces a hybrid AMM-order book mechanism to improve liquidity depth and reduce slippage, attracting professional traders.
- USDC Reserve Yields: The protocol holds significant USDC reserves for collateral and liquidity, generating additional yield via DeFi protocols or on-chain lending, further boosting revenue.
- Wallet & Fiat On-Ramp: Hyperliquid is developing its own wallet and fiat-to-crypto on-ramp solutions, lowering entry barriers and expanding the user base to drive transaction volume and income.
Risks and Uncertainties
Multicoin Capital also warns that the valuation heavily depends on revenue realization. If Hyperliquid fails to maintain its current market share or faces fierce competition from rivals like dYdX or GMX, revenue growth may disappoint. Furthermore, regulatory constraints on decentralized derivative platforms, potential changes to the tokenomics model, and overall market volatility are all downside risks. The report emphasizes that $319 is a base-case estimate; in a bear scenario, the valuation could be significantly lower.
Market Context and Significance
Hyperliquid is currently the largest perpetual DEX by trading volume. Its native token HYPE was launched in 2024 and has a circulating market cap of approximately $3 billion. Multicoin Capital, as a leading crypto venture capital firm, often influences market expectations with its research. If HYPE follows the projected trajectory, it could solidify Hyperliquid's dominance in the DEX space and serve as a valuation benchmark for other protocols.