Core Forecast: HYPE Base-Case Valuation at $319 by 2028
Multicoin Capital has published a research report providing a long-term valuation forecast for Hyperliquid's native token, HYPE. The report states that by 2028, HYPE's base-case valuation could reach $319, representing approximately 4x upside from its current price. This forecast is based on Hyperliquid's strategic move to emulate the revenue model of centralised exchanges, coupled with the actual income generated by the protocol.
Four Key Drivers: Revenue Model and Deflationary Mechanics
The report identifies four core drivers supporting HYPE's valuation: First, high trading market share. Hyperliquid has captured a significant share of the perpetual futures market, generating stable fee income from sustained trading volume. Second, 99% of protocol revenue is used for buyback and burn. This deflationary mechanism directly reduces HYPE's circulating supply, providing price support. Third, the HIP-3 market deployment mechanism enables community-driven token listings and liquidity deployment, further expanding the ecosystem. Fourth, USDC reserve yield and wallet onboarding expansion. By earning yields on USDC reserves and lowering the barrier for new users, Hyperliquid can grow its user base and protocol revenue.
Valuation Risks: Heavy Dependence on Revenue Delivery
Despite a solid model, the report also highlights key risks: the valuation is highly dependent on Hyperliquid's actual protocol revenue delivery in the future. If trading volumes decline, competition intensifies, or regulatory changes lead to lower-than-expected revenue, the $319 target may not be achieved. Additionally, token unlocks and market sentiment fluctuations could affect short-term price performance. Investors should closely monitor protocol revenue data and ecosystem development progress.