Core Forecast: $319 Base Case for HYPE by 2028
Multicoin Capital's latest research report presents a highly bullish long-term valuation for Hyperliquid's native token, HYPE. The report projects a base case price of $319 by 2028, representing approximately 4x upside from current levels. This target is not based on speculative momentum but on a deep analysis of Hyperliquid's revenue model.
Four Pillars of Valuation: A Revenue Model Converging with CEXs
The report argues that Hyperliquid is increasingly adopting a revenue model similar to centralized exchanges (CEXs), which forms the core of its valuation. Key supporting factors include:
- High trading market share: Hyperliquid has captured a significant share of the derivatives DEX sector, consistently generating substantial trading fee revenue.
- 99% of protocol revenue used for buybacks and burns: The protocol allocates the vast majority of its revenue to market buybacks and token burns, creating a deflationary mechanism that directly enhances token scarcity.
- HIP-3 market deployment mechanism: Through Hyper Improvement Proposal 3, the community and market makers can efficiently deploy new markets, expanding trading variety and depth, thereby increasing revenue streams.
- USDC reserve yield: Hyperliquid holds a large USDC reserve, generating stable returns via DeFi protocols or on-chain strategies, contributing additional profits to the protocol.
- Wallet access expansion: Tools like the Hyperliquid wallet lower the barrier to entry for users, growing the user base and driving continuous growth in trading volume and revenue.
Key Assumption: Valuation Highly Dependent on Revenue Realization
Multicoin Capital emphasizes that the $319 base case hinges on sustained revenue growth. If actual trading volume, protocol revenue, or token burn rates fall short, the target price could face significant downward revision. Additionally, Hyperliquid faces intense competition from other derivatives DEXs (e.g., dYdX, GMX) as well as centralized exchanges, while regulatory uncertainties around decentralized trading platforms remain unresolved—both could hinder valuation realization.
Market Reaction and Key Metrics to Watch
Following the report's release, HYPE experienced short-term price volatility, but the overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Investors should monitor Hyperliquid's monthly protocol revenue data, HIP-3 market deployment progress, and changes in USDC reserve size. If revenue growth underperforms, the current valuation premium may face correction.