Valuation Prediction: $319 Base Case by 2028
Multicoin Capital has released a report forecasting a base-case target price of $319 for Hyperliquid's native token HYPE by 2028. Relative to current prices, this suggests approximately 4x upside. The report positions Hyperliquid as a 'decentralized derivatives protocol converging with centralized exchange profitability' and emphasizes its unique revenue model as the core driver.
Four Key Revenue Pillars
The report identifies four main mechanisms underpinning the valuation:
- High trading share: Hyperliquid commands a significant portion of the perpetual futures market, generating stable fee income.
- 99% protocol revenue used for buyback and burn: The protocol returns the vast majority of revenue to buy back and burn HYPE, creating sustained deflationary pressure.
- HIP-3 market deployment mechanism: Through the HIP-3 governance proposal, new markets can be launched quickly with allocated liquidity incentives, boosting trading activity.
- USDC reserve yield and wallet onboarding expansion: The protocol earns interest on its USDC reserves while expanding its user base through wallet integrations and fiat on-ramps.
Risk Warning: Valuation Heavily Dependent on Revenue Realization
Despite the optimistic outlook, the report cautions that the target price is highly contingent on the actual performance of these revenue streams. If trading share declines, buybacks falter, or market deployment slows, the target may be significantly lower. Investors should monitor on-chain activity and protocol revenue data closely.