Valuation Forecast and Core Thesis
Multicoin Capital's latest report sets a baseline target of $319 for HYPE by 2028, implying roughly 4x upside. The report emphasizes that Hyperliquid is transitioning from a pure derivative DEX to a revenue model resembling centralized exchanges (CEX). By controlling order matching, settlement, and funding rates, the protocol captures higher and more predictable revenue streams.
Five Key Value Drivers
The report identifies five pillars supporting the high valuation: High trading market share — Hyperliquid leads the perpetual DEX space with average daily volume exceeding $5 billion; 99% revenue buyback & burn — the protocol uses the vast majority of its revenue to repurchase and destroy HYPE tokens, creating sustained deflation; HIP-3 new market deployment — permissionless creation of new trading pairs increases activity and attracts liquidity; USDC reserve yield — interest income generated from user deposits held in the protocol; Wallet onboarding expansion — integration of more wallets and fiat on-ramps lowers barriers for new users. Together these mechanisms form a CEX-like flywheel: revenue growth → buyback & burn → token price appreciation → more users and volume → further revenue growth.
Risks and Conditionality
The report cautions that the valuation is highly sensitive to revenue realization. If daily volume, fee rates, or USDC reserves fall short of projections, HYPE could trade well below $319. Multicoin Capital assumes Hyperliquid maintains roughly 2% market share (by volume) through 2028 with protocol revenue CAGR above 30%. In a bear case with slower growth, the baseline target drops to under $150. Competitive pressure from dYdX, Vertex, and other derivatives DEXs, as well as potential regulatory headwinds, are also highlighted as risks.