Spain’s 0-0 draw with Cabo Verde triggered one of the sharpest trading splits of the World Cup on Polymarket. Data reviewed by CoinDesk shows that a newly created wallet turned roughly $4 million in positions into more than $9 million in profit within hours, while another trader lost close to $1 million after backing Spain to win.
Two anti-Spain positions paid out at once
According to on-chain analytics firm Lookonchain, the winning account was named “fishalive” and was created this month. The wallet placed two bets against Spain: one that Spain would not win the match outright, and another that Cabo Verde would stay within a 2.5-goal spread. The final score was 0-0, so both positions settled in its favor.
Public trading records show the wallet redeemed about $4.7 million from the Spain market and another $8.5 million from the spread market. That left it with an estimated one-day profit of around $9 million. As with other accounts on the platform, the trader operated through a pseudonymous crypto wallet rather than a verified real-world identity.
A near-certain trade became an expensive loss
On the losing side, a trader using the name “betoor619” dropped nearly $1 million. Records reviewed by CoinDesk indicate the account put almost $1.1 million on a Spain win when the market implied the favorite had about a 92% chance of victory. If Spain had won, the payout would have been only about $85,000, reflecting the thin upside that comes with betting on outcomes priced as highly likely.
The account’s prior history shows it had never recorded a gain or loss larger than $9,000 on a single event. This time the size was much larger, and the result moved the other way.
Cabo Verde was a debutant, but trading volume surged
Cabo Verde was appearing in its first World Cup and came into the match without high-profile professionals. Spain, by contrast, was a pre-tournament favorite and the reigning European champion. Cabo Verde’s 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha was named player of the match. That gap in reputation and expectations helped explain why the underdog entered the game at long odds.
Even so, Polymarket saw about $64 million traded on the Spain match alone. On the platform, users buy and sell shares tied to real-world outcomes, with prices functioning as implied odds and settlement handled in USDC, the dollar-pegged stablecoin, on a public blockchain.
World Cup markets now dominate Polymarket activity
Polymarket lets users trade through crypto wallets under screen names instead of real identities. That structure has drawn criticism from lawmakers, who argue the platform does not collect the background information required by regulated sportsbooks.
The market for the overall World Cup winner has attracted about $2.4 billion in volume so far. That makes the tournament Polymarket’s biggest event since last year’s U.S. election, and it has already moved past the roughly $1.4 billion wagered on this year’s Super Bowl.