116,000 Bitcoin options and 206,000 Ethereum options are set to expire this Friday, February 27, with a combined notional value of roughly $9 billion, representing about 20% of total open interest on Deribit. Bitcoin's share of OI has hit a multi-year high.
Key metrics: Max Pain far from spot
According to Greeks.live data, BTC options show a Put/Call Ratio of 0.76, a max pain price of $75,000, and a notional value of approximately $7.9 billion. Bitcoin currently trades around $68,500, well below max pain. ETH options have a Put/Call ratio of 0.77, max pain at $2,200, with a notional value of about $980 million. Ethereum trades near $2,070, also below max pain. Most options are out-of-the-money, favoring sellers at expiry.
Implied volatility recovers, sentiment still fragile
Adam, analyst at Greeks.live, noted that crypto markets remained depressed throughout February. BTC hit a low of $60,062 early in the month, hovering weakly above $60K since. A bounce in the last two days lifted implied volatility: BTC's main-term IV sits at 47%, ETH's at 65%. The downtrend has eased, but confidence hasn't returned. Adam pointed out that block call options dominated recent flow, with many medium-to-long-term call contracts traded after yesterday's rebound. The skew has also rebounded, suggesting bottom-fishing buying is appearing.
Still bearish: no fresh capital, no catalyst, gloom on social media
Adam cautioned that the market remains in a bear phase. No new capital is flowing into crypto, no clear catalyst exists, and bearish narratives dominate social media. He believes the true bottom panic may still be ahead; investors shouldn't get overly optimistic. With spot prices near a dense cluster of strike prices, dealers' Gamma hedging could amplify intraday swings. If price drifts toward max pain, sellers profit, but a fast move through strike prices might trigger a short squeeze. Traders should brace for volatility around expiry.