New Huo Research said the digital-asset market has entered a key waiting period this week. U.S. inflation and employment data have started to soften, cutting expectations for an October rate hike, but long-end yields remain elevated and liquidity pressure on risk assets has not fully eased.
Soft inflation and labor data push down October hike expectations
On Sept. 30, U.S. core PCE inflation rose 3.0% year over year, below the market expectation of 3.3%, while headline PCE rose 3.4%. On Oct. 2, nonfarm payrolls increased by about 29,000, far below the expected 84,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
Against that backdrop, market pricing for another October rate increase fell sharply. CME FedWatch showed the implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the Oct. 28 meeting dropping from about 66% at the start of the week to about 22% by Friday. Polymarket showed 18%. The market focus has now shifted to the possibility that the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged in October.
Long-term yields stay high as ETF flows lose momentum
That shift in rate expectations has not been matched by a similar move in long-dated bonds. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield still climbed to about 5.26% to 5.29% on Friday, a sign that pressure from rates on risk assets remains in place.
On the fund-flow side, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded combined net inflows of about $510 million across four trading days from Sept. 28 to Oct. 1. Compared with roughly $2.39 billion in the prior week, the largest weekly inflow of the year, institutional buying has moved from active chasing to a more cautious stance.
U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs turned to net outflows over the same period. New Huo Research said it remains unclear whether the move reflects sector rotation or a broader pullback in market participation.
Oct. 14 CPI and Oct. 28 FOMC meeting are the next key checkpoints
New Huo Research said the next major observation window will be the CPI release on Oct. 14 and the FOMC meeting on Oct. 28.
If CPI continues the cooling trend seen in PCE, the market may keep pricing in no move in October and push the policy split back to December. If inflation strengthens again, pricing for another hike could recover. Oil prices, long-end yields and the U.S.-Iran situation may also affect actual liquidity conditions.
Regulation and on-chain activity remain in focus
On the policy side, the U.S. Treasury is seeking comments on the implementation framework for Section 3 of the GENIUS Act. The consultation deadline is around Oct. 19, and the law is expected to take effect on Jan. 18, 2027.
Further statements from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on tokenization and related digital-asset regulation will also be an important signal for institutions pursuing compliant business expansion.
On-chain, about 1.5 million ETH are currently waiting to be staked on the Ethereum mainnet, while about 850,000 ETH sit in the exit queue, leaving staking in net inflow. Market interest in Robinhood Chain has cooled, and traders are waiting to see whether a second round of on-chain activity emerges.
Bitcoin sits at a directional decision point
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is in a post-consolidation decision phase after trading at elevated levels. During the week, it mostly moved between $82,600 and $87,100.
If the price stabilizes around $84,000 and volume picks up again, the market may retest the $87,000 to $90,000 range. If it breaks below $82,600, it may go on to test the $80,000 round-number level.
New Huo Research said MA7 is about $84,300 and MA20 is about $82,800, with the current price still above both moving averages. RSI14 is about 62, in a neutral-to-strong range, and has not yet formed a clear bearish divergence. On BOLL20, the midline is about $82,800, the upper band is about $89,200 and the lower band is about $76,400. Price remains between the midline and the upper band, with volatility still relatively high.