New Huo Technology Research said the crypto market showed relative resilience last week even as oil, bond yields and regulation all became major sources of pressure. Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moved above 4.7%, and the Magnificent Seven erased $800 billion in market value in a single day, according to the report.
Oil shock and rate expectations moved together
The institute described the escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict as the key macro variable last week. Yemen’s Houthi movement announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, directly pushing Brent crude above $100 a barrel. In the report’s view, that was not only an energy-market event. Rising oil prices are reshaping inflation expectations and, in turn, affecting the Federal Reserve’s rate path.
Market pricing for a July FOMC rate hike stood at about 40%, while the probability of a September hike was also rising. Kevin Warsh, described in the report as a leading contender for the Fed chair role, said he would support rate hikes if inflation showed any renewed movement. At the same time, initial jobless claims came in at just 187,000, the lowest level since the pandemic, suggesting the labor market remains overheated and leaving the Fed with room to tighten.
Against that backdrop, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed past 4.7%, the highest since January 2025. The report said a high-rate environment tends to compress risk appetite and tighten liquidity, a pattern that has repeatedly played out across risk assets over the past two years.
Refinery maintenance season could tighten supply further
New Huo Technology Research also pointed to seasonal pressure in fuel markets. Refinery utilization usually peaks in July and August, with maintenance season beginning after late August. If security risks around the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, refined-product supply could face additional tightening.
The report added that gasoline inventories are being drawn down quickly and are already at very low levels. That leaves little buffer in refined products to absorb any new supply shock, which could make the real economic impact more severe if disruptions continue.
Regulatory and industry signals drew attention
Beyond macro conditions, the report highlighted several industry developments. Goldman Sachs CEO publicly backed the Clarity Act, with particular focus on provisions that would allow traditional financial institutions to participate in digital assets and blockchain. New Huo Technology Research said that support amounts to an important regulatory signal.
If the Clarity Act advances to a vote before the Senate recess on Aug. 7 and makes progress, the report said it could open an institutional channel for capital to enter the crypto market. If it fails to move forward, the industry’s period of regulatory ambiguity may last longer. The institute also said markets should watch crypto-related sanctions and compliance developments in the European Union and other regions.
S&P Dow Jones Indices and Pantera have also launched a crypto index that excludes Bitcoin, XRP and meme coins. Its top five holdings are ETH, BNB, SOL, TRX and HYPE. The report said that composition reflects how traditional financial institutions prefer assets backed by ecosystems when they build index products, rather than pure stores of value or speculative tokens.
Another industry development in the report was BitMEX’s decision to cease operations by Sept. 23. New Huo Technology Research described that as the end of an era and noted that crypto derivatives trading volume in the first half of 2026 fell 15.7% year over year, while average daily open interest declined 10%, pointing to structural contraction in the market.
ETF flows weakened, while ETH held up better
On fund flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs posted combined net outflows of $450 million over two days, a sign that short-term capital is stepping back in the face of macro uncertainty. ETH ETFs were steadier, with only $7 million in net outflows on Friday. The report said the market appears to be reassessing Ethereum’s role and valuation.
On sentiment, the Fear and Greed Index dropped back into the 20 to 40 range, placing the market in “fear.” Coinbase’s debt ratio, described in the report as the BTC/USD premium, widened again to -0.12%, reflecting cooler institutional trading activity.
Bitcoin remains in a rebound structure
From a technical perspective, New Huo Technology Research said the broader crypto market remains in a choppy upward structure and has not yet broken below rebound support. Bitcoin is still trading above its daily EMA30 and is now testing the EMA60 and EMA120 as near-term resistance.
The report placed EMA60 at about $65,500 and EMA120 at about $68,800, calling them the two most important resistance levels in the short term. Over the medium to long term, it said, the market still looks like it is in a rebound phase rather than a full trend reversal.
The 14-day RSI is in a neutral 45 to 57 range, neither overbought nor oversold, showing that the market has not chosen a clear direction yet. Key support sits at $64,300 and $62,000. A break below $62,000 could trigger a broader wave of stop-loss selling, the report said.
Next 30 days will test the market again
The report noted that Bitcoin Asia, Malaysia Blockchain Week and Coinfest Asia are all scheduled within the next 30 days, but there is still no clearly defined protocol-level upgrade on the calendar. In its view, the market needs a fresh catalyst to break the current wait-and-see pattern.
This week is also a major earnings week for U.S. equities. The FOMC will release its rate decision on July 29, and markets are broadly pricing in no change, though any shift in the Fed’s wording could drive volatility. In August, nonfarm payrolls and CPI data will add to the macro picture and directly shape expectations for the Fed’s next move.
New Huo Technology Research said the interaction between oil prices, interest rates and regulation will determine market direction in the coming months. If oil prices and geopolitical risks remain elevated, worries over a “higher for longer” environment may intensify. Even with crypto showing relative resilience, the report said short-term price action is still being driven more by macro conditions and capital flows than by fundamental catalysts.