Stablecoin Battle: Open USD Strikes, Circle Under Pressure
Last Friday (June 28), Circle (CRCL) suffered a significant FUD event. The Open Standard, backed by 140 institutions, announced plans to launch OUSD stablecoin, aiming to capture market share. CRCL plunged 17% to around $150. Multiple editors analyzed: some believe OUSD's impact is exaggerated, as the model mimics Paxos' USDG, which has only accumulated $3 billion in circulation since 2024 (4% of USDC's market cap). Others note USDC's regulatory moat is years ahead — even if competitors replicate the path, it would take 5+ years to go public, leaving CRCL as the only pure-play stablecoin stock.
However, cautious voices point to Stripe's shadow: Bridge, a Stripe subsidiary, provides the CEO for OUSD's issuer, meaning Stripe is actively challenging Circle. Circle's CEO gave a weak response, raising expectations for defensive moves. Trading strategies: some plan to buy CRCL at $56-60, target $85-90 short-term, long-term target $150 pending CLARITY Act progress. Others bought at $150 before the Nasdaq 100 inclusion (effective July 6) and plan to sell before expiry.
Semiconductor Supply Chain: Equipment Giants Hit Records, Hynix Reshapes Competition
The global semiconductor expansion cycle strengthens. ASML, LRCX, AMAT, and KLAC all hit all-time highs. Though valuations are expensive, the certainty is high — Korea's 800 trillion won expansion plan and other orders worth hundreds of billions will flow to these suppliers. SK Hynix's upcoming US listing is seen as a buying opportunity, as its stock is deliberately depressed to support a better debut. In contrast, Micron (MU) will lose its HBM scarcity premium post-Hynix listing, making Hynix more cost-effective. Other memory players (Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix, Samsung) remain monopolistic. Changxin Memory is also IPOing this month. With a 20-25% drawdown from highs, it's nearing a bottom-fishing zone. Rocket Lab (RKLB) was bought at $80-85; after Iridium acquisition, it surged. Still in CEO's selling window, further dips will be accumulated.
Individual Stock Observations: Strategy Sell-off, HOOD Volume Records
Strategy announced a $1.25 billion BTC sale plan, which some view as helping STRC re-anchor — after enough pain, dividends may drive a rebound. Robinhood (HOOD) is strong: it set a record for stock trading volume in just 3.5 weeks of June, with prediction market revenue surging. One editor explicitly avoids large positions in US equities, waiting for crypto bottoms: BTC below $50k, ETH below $1400 to start DCA, alongside fundamentally strong altcoins like HYPE and PUMP.
Predictive Markets: Main Focus and Tool Optimization
Several editors prioritize predictive markets. predict.fun, deeply integrated with Binance, is the main airdrop play. Polymarket is combined with the PPP copy-trading tool to optimize profitability (see guide: 'From Signal Monitoring to Strategy Copying, How PPP Lowers Polymarket's Trading Barrier'). The strategy currently yields mixed results — some days profit, some loss. In short: predict for airdrops, Polymarket for profit.
