Bottom-fishing is brutal, but one battle-tested on-chain metric has historically flagged the precise moment to buy — and it is flashing again.
Profit vs Loss Supply Converging
The metric compares the volume of bitcoin held in profit (coins bought below current price) against those in loss. Right now, 11.1 million BTC are in profit while 8.9 million are in loss, per Glassnode data. The gap has narrowed significantly, nearing the threshold where past bottoms formed.
Past Bottoms Confirmed by This Signal
When profit and loss supplies converge, it typically signals maximum fear and the exhaustion of sellers. This pattern preceded every major cycle bottom: November 2022 near $15,000 after the FTX collapse, March 2020 around $3,000 during the COVID crash, January 2019 at $3,300, and 2015 just above $200. In each case, the convergence marked the end of the bear market and the start of a multi-year uptrend.
The current setup mirrors those historical configurations. Whether history repeats itself remains to be seen, but the signal is one of the few objective markers of exhaustion in crypto markets.