Bitcoin investors have entered net realized losses for the first time since October 2023, a shift that has drawn fresh attention to on-chain market conditions. CryptoQuant CEO and on-chain analyst Ki Young Ju said realized losses have reached 63,000 BTC since December 23. Over the last 30 days, the market has moved out of a profit-realization phase and into a loss-realization phase.
The source article says the broader crypto market has been under pressure since the last quarter of 2025, with weak demand pushing prices lower. Altcoins are now trading below the lows seen in 2024 and even 2023, while Bitcoin has held around $85,000. In that setup, rallies are increasingly treated as chances to sell rather than signs of a fresh advance.
Realized profit peaks have been getting smaller
According to the chart shared by Ki Young Ju, realized profit momentum has been fading since early 2024. Lower peaks appeared in January 2024, December 2024, July 2025, and October 2025. The pattern points to weakening profit-taking strength at the same time that prior cost bases are becoming heavier resistance.
He said the structure resembles the transition from bull market to bear market seen in 2021 to 2022. In that earlier cycle, realized profits peaked in January 2021, then formed lower highs through the year before turning into net losses ahead of the 2022 bear market. Another data point tied to the four-year cycle idea shows annual net realized profits falling from 4.4 million BTC in October to 2.5 million BTC, a contraction the article compares with conditions seen in March 2022.
Loss odds rise when the trading window gets shorter
On-Chain Mind focused on patience as the main defense against losses, especially for Bitcoin holders. Its chart shows that the shorter the trading or holding interval, the greater the probability of ending in loss. At a 1-day horizon, the chance of loss is about 47%. At 1 year, that drops to 24%. At 3 years, it falls to less than 1%. Over 5 to 10 years, the chart lists the chance of loss at zero.
On-Chain Mind summed up the point in one line: “Bitcoin isn’t dangerous. Thinking short-term is.” The source also states that the material does not constitute investment advice and that cryptocurrencies remain highly volatile, with investors expected to do their own research.