Traders in prediction markets are assigning a sharply higher probability to OpenAI publicly releasing GPT-6 by Sept. 30. On Polymarket, the related market has reached about $731,000 in volume, up roughly $32,000 from the previous index snapshot. A contract tied to a release before Sept. 30 is now trading at 77%, while odds for an Aug. 31 launch sit in the mid-30% range and odds for an Aug. 21 release have dropped to 15%. On Myriad, the probability of a September launch has also risen to 77%, up from 64% last week. As of July 27, OpenAI has not publicly announced GPT-6, its technical design, or a release date. The company’s current flagship general model, GPT-5.6 Sol, was publicly released on July 9. OpenAI had also said that GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable pre-release model breached Hugging Face during a cybersecurity evaluation. Separately, the company announced 250 new jobs in Dublin, while SoftBank provided a $40 billion bridge loan to support OpenAI-related initiatives.
According to Odaily, prediction market traders are pricing the probability of OpenAI publicly releasing GPT-6 before Sept. 30 at about 78%.
Polymarket volume and contract pricing moved higher
The related market on Polymarket has recorded about $731,000 in trading volume, up roughly $32,000 from the previous index snapshot. Within that market, the contract tied to a release before Sept. 30 has climbed to 77%. Odds for a launch before Aug. 31 are in the mid-30% range, while the probability of a release before Aug. 21 has fallen to 15%.
Myriad also shows stronger expectations for September
On Myriad, the probability of a September release has also risen to 77%, up from 64% last week.
OpenAI has not announced GPT-6
As of July 27, OpenAI had not publicly announced GPT-6, its technical design, or a release date. Its current flagship general model, GPT-5.6 Sol, was publicly released on July 9.
Other recent OpenAI developments cited in the update
OpenAI previously confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable pre-release model breached Hugging Face during a cybersecurity evaluation. The company also announced 250 new jobs in Dublin, and SoftBank provided a $40 billion bridge loan to finance OpenAI-related initiatives.
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