OpenAI is weathering a perfect storm in March 2026: its flagship video platform Sora is shutting down, a $1 billion investment from Disney has fallen through, a Pentagon contract is sparking user backlash and executive resignations, and the company posted a staggering $11.5 billion loss in Q4 2025. The convergence of these events has reignited debates over whether the AI bubble is finally bursting. This article is based on tweets from @TheBTCTherapist and multiple sources, translated and compiled by BlockTempo.
Sora Lasts Only 6 Months, Disney Pulls Out
On March 24, 2026, OpenAI officially announced the shutdown of Sora, its AI video generation platform launched in late 2024. App Store data reveals that U.S. downloads of Sora dropped 32% in December 2025 and another 45% in January 2026, a cumulative decline of nearly 80% in just two months. Tied to Sora's fate was Disney's $1 billion investment plan, rumored since December 2025, which would have granted OpenAI access to over 200 characters from Disney, Marvel, Pixar, and Star Wars for use in Sora. Disney said it "respects OpenAI's decision to exit video generation," while OpenAI stated it is not fully leaving the AI video space but offered no explanation for Sora's closure.
Pentagon Contract Triggers User Exodus, Executive Quits
Weeks before Sora's shutdown, OpenAI signed a contract with the U.S. Department of Defense on February 28, 2026, to deploy ChatGPT on classified networks. The deal came a day after Anthropic was banned from the same contract for refusing to remove AI safety guardrails. CEO Sam Altman later admitted the contract "looked opportunistic and sloppy." The fallout was immediate: ChatGPT uninstall rates spiked 295% in one day, and one-star ratings surged 775%. Anthropic's Claude overtook ChatGPT to become the top free app on Apple's App Store. Internally, robotics head Caitlin Kalinowski resigned in protest, and employees had earlier signed an open letter supporting Anthropic's stance. OpenAI later added a clause barring use for domestic surveillance, but the full contract remains undisclosed.
$11.5B Quarterly Loss, Profit Unlikely Before 2030
OpenAI's financial woes are equally dire. Based on Microsoft's (which owns ~27% of OpenAI) financial statements, the company lost approximately $11.5 billion in Q4 2025 alone. Internal projections suggest 2026 losses could reach $14 billion. HSBC analysts estimate OpenAI won't turn a profit until 2029, with cumulative losses from 2023–2028 totaling $44 billion, and a funding gap of $207 billion. OpenAI is now seeking a new $100 billion funding round to bridge the gap.
'The Bubble Is Bursting': Bitcoin Maximalists Weigh In
The cryptocurrency community sees a different narrative. Bitcoin maximalist account @TheBTCTherapist tweeted a list of OpenAI's troubles, concluding: "The bubble is bursting." Supporters draw parallels to the 2000 dot-com bust, arguing AI firms rely on massive funding without clear profitability, unlike Bitcoin's fixed supply and lack of capital dependency. Skeptics note OpenAI's revenue growth remains strong, but the simultaneous crises—Sora shutdown, Disney withdrawal, Pentagon backlash, and $11.5B loss—pose the most severe test yet for the 'fast growth, ignore losses' narrative.