As Bitcoin BTC slides below $91,000 amid President Donald Trump's tariff rhetoric, data from decentralized trading venues points to expectations for deeper price declines in coming months.
Options Market Signals Downside Skew
Traders on Derive.xyz, a decentralized protocol for on-chain options, perpetuals and structured products, see a 30% chance of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 by the end of June. Similar positioning is evident on Deribit, the largest centralized options exchange.
Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, told CoinDesk: "Options markets show a clear downside skew, with a 30% chance BTC falls below $80K by June 26, compared to a 19% chance it rallies above $120K over the same period."
Options are derivative contracts that allow traders to bet on Bitcoin's price. Call options: profit if price exceeds a predetermined level; put options: profit if price falls below a set level. If the market does not move as expected, the premium and entry fee are lost.
Geopolitical and Tariff Risks Resurface
A drop below $80,000 would bring prices to their lowest level since April 2025, when Bitcoin tanked to $75,000 amid Trump's sweeping tariffs on imports that roiled global markets.
Tariff concerns have resurfaced as Trump threatens a 10% levy on imports from 10 European nations for opposing his plan to take over Greenland. Bitcoin has since fallen from $95,000 to $91,000.
Dawson noted these geopolitical tensions could lead to deeper losses: "Rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Europe – particularly around Greenland – raise the risk of a regime shift back into a higher-volatility environment, a dynamic not currently reflected in spot prices."
He explained that the options skew, which measures the price differential between call and put options, remains negative, implying near-term downside fears. On both Derive and Deribit, there is a sizable concentration of open interest in put options at strike prices from $75,000 to $80,000, suggesting expectations of a drawdown into the mid-$70,000s.