Bitcoin is approaching another key milestone in its monetary schedule as the network nears its next halving event. According to the source material, 93.6% of Bitcoin’s total supply has already been mined, leaving just 1.34 million BTC yet to be issued out of the protocol’s hard cap of 21 million coins. That figure alone highlights how far the asset has progressed along its preprogrammed issuance curve—and why scarcity remains central to its market narrative.
A shrinking issuance schedule
The upcoming halving will reduce the block subsidy paid to miners from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. This is the latest step in a long-running decline built into Bitcoin from day one. In the network’s earliest years, miners received 50 BTC per block between 2009 and 2012. Each halving has since cut that reward in half, steadily reducing the flow of newly minted bitcoin entering circulation.
The article traces this supply progression across several historical milestones. Roughly one-quarter of Bitcoin’s total supply had been mined by April 22, 2010. By Dec. 14, 2011, miners had produced around half of all BTC. The three-quarter mark was reached on July 29, 2015. By Dec. 13, 2021, about 90% of the total supply had already entered circulation. Now, that number has advanced to 93.6%, underscoring how little remains to be mined over the decades still ahead.
Circulating supply is not the same as accessible supply
The source notes that Bitcoin’s current issued supply stands at 19,656,761.74 BTC. But headline supply figures do not fully capture what is actually available to the average market participant. A significant portion of mined bitcoin is concentrated in corporate treasuries, government holdings, exchange-traded products, funds, DeFi systems, smart contracts, and exchange reserves.
Citing data from bitcointreasuries.net, the report says these grouped entities collectively hold 2,494,501 BTC. Separately, cryptoquant.com data cited in the piece indicates that slightly more than 2 million BTC—specifically 2,003,753.08 BTC—are held on exchange platforms. The article also points out that exchange balances should be interpreted carefully because a portion of those coins belongs to customers using custodial services rather than the exchanges themselves.
This distinction matters because Bitcoin scarcity is often discussed in terms of total supply, while investors and traders operate in a market defined by liquid and available supply. The smaller the readily movable float becomes, the more sensitive the market can be to changes in demand, even if the protocol’s nominal supply path is well understood.
The role of so-called “zombie bitcoins”
Another important factor in Bitcoin’s effective scarcity is the existence of long-dormant coins, often referred to as “zombie bitcoins” in the source article. These are coins that have not moved for extended periods—sometimes for years—and may include coins that are effectively lost, even if that status cannot be definitively proven onchain.
The article references two estimates. A 2019 Coin Metrics study put the number of such coins at around 1.4 million BTC, while a 2020 estimate from blockchaincenter.net placed it closer to 1.7 million BTC. Even if those figures are treated as estimates rather than certainties, they reinforce a long-standing point in Bitcoin analysis: theoretical maximum supply and practically circulating supply are not the same thing.
The source further breaks down Bitcoin’s distribution by category. It states that public and private corporations, governments, and ETFs account for 11.88% of total supply. Around 9.54% is held on centralized crypto exchanges. “Zombie bitcoins” represent about 8.09%, excluding the share attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto, which the article says represents 4.76% of the 21 million cap. With 6.39% of Bitcoin still left to mine, the piece argues that a substantial share of the supply is effectively outside the reach of the average individual.
It goes further by modeling exchange ownership assumptions. If customers are assumed to control 60% of BTC held on exchanges, then the article estimates that the accessible supply falls to about 34.94% of total Bitcoin supply. While this is an analytical framing rather than an absolute measure, it illustrates the broader point: availability may be much tighter than simple supply issuance data suggests.
Why the next halvings matter
The next halving is important not only because it cuts fresh issuance in half, but also because it moves Bitcoin deeper into a phase where each future reduction carries symbolic and structural significance. According to the report, the 2028 halving will lower the block reward to 1.5625 BTC. After the 2032 halving, the subsidy will no longer include a whole bitcoin, making the 2028–2032 period the last epoch in which a full BTC remains part of the block reward.
The article also projects that by Feb. 20, 2035, approximately 99% of Bitcoin’s total supply will have been mined, corresponding to about 20,790,000 BTC in circulation. At that point, miner rewards are expected to be 0.78125 BTC per block. During 2036, following the seventh halving cycle referenced in the piece, the reward would decline again to 0.390625 BTC.
These milestones matter because Bitcoin’s scarcity does not arrive all at once. Instead, it intensifies through a long, transparent schedule that markets can anticipate years in advance. Every halving reduces the marginal flow of new supply, and over time that flow becomes increasingly small relative to the outstanding stock of bitcoin already in existence.
Scarcity as a defining feature
The source frames this evolution as part of Bitcoin’s contrast with fiat monetary systems. Unlike currencies that can expand under policy discretion, Bitcoin’s supply path is predetermined by code. The result is a monetary asset whose inflation rate declines over time until issuance becomes negligible.
Whether that scarcity ultimately translates into price appreciation depends on many external factors, including demand, regulation, macroeconomic conditions, custody trends, and investor behavior. Still, the article’s core takeaway is clear: Bitcoin is entering a stage where newly issued supply is becoming increasingly limited, while a meaningful portion of existing supply is already locked away, dormant, institutionally held, or otherwise less accessible.
With only 1.34 million BTC left to mine and the next reward cut approaching, Bitcoin’s supply story is moving into a more mature phase. For market observers, miners, and long-term holders alike, the next halving is more than a routine protocol event—it is another reminder that Bitcoin’s scarcity model is no longer theoretical. It is unfolding in real time.