On June 12, 2025, the X account 'Pentagon Pizza Report' posted: 'As of 6:59pm ET nearly all pizza establishments nearby the Pentagon have experienced a HUGE surge in activity.' One hour later, explosions rocked Tehran, Iran's capital. Israel had launched a pre-emptive strike, alleging Iran was secretly building a nuclear weapon. This prediction has lent fresh credence to the 1990s urban legend that pizza order volumes around the Pentagon can accurately forecast major geopolitical events.
The Origins of the Pizza Index
When crises emerge, Pentagon officials often work late into the night, and pizza — greasy, satisfying, and convenient — becomes their food of choice. According to a Time Magazine report in August 1990, one pizza delivery driver recalled: 'Pentagon orders doubled up the night before the Panama attack; same thing happened before the Grenada invasion. We got a lot of orders, starting around midnight. We figured something was up.' Indeed, Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990, the same night orders spiked.
Former CNN Pentagon correspondent Wolf Blitzer once said, as reported by Slate.com: 'Bottom line for journalists: Always monitor the pizzas.' Despite experts dismissing this as pseudoscience, the index has correctly foretold numerous conflicts, including the Gulf War, the Afghanistan invasion, and now the 2025 Iran strike.
This Year's Prediction
The June 12 accuracy was particularly striking. The 'Pentagon Pizza Report' later disclosed that pizza orders surged by over 300% compared to usual volume, concentrated in the late-night hours. This matches the pattern of overnight emergency sessions at the Pentagon. Israel stated its strikes targeted secret Iranian uranium enrichment facilities, following weeks of urgent consultations with U.S. intelligence. Once again, the Pizza Index proved its odd but persistent track record.
Critics argue that pizza spikes can occur due to football games or holidays, introducing false positives. Yet the repeated correlation with major events keeps the index popular among open-source intelligence (OSINT) enthusiasts. As of now, the Pentagon has not commented officially on the phenomenon.