Veteran trader Peter Brandt has pushed back against growing expectations of a Bitcoin breakout, arguing the cryptocurrency remains locked in a bearish structure even as it holds above $65,000. His latest analysis, shared via a weekly BTC/USD chart from TradeNavigator, challenges the view that Bitcoin is forming a bullish flag that could trigger a major rally.
Flag Thesis Questioned: Timeframe Doesn't Fit
Brandt argues that classical technical analysis does not support the bullish flag interpretation. Traditional bull flags typically develop over six to eight weeks, but Bitcoin's current corrective phase has lasted far longer. In his view, that alone makes the textbook analogy questionable.
The chart Brandt posted shows Bitcoin trading inside a descending channel, with both the 8-period and 18-period moving averages above the current price — a clear sign that the broader downtrend remains intact. Although Bitcoin has stabilized in the $65,200–$66,000 range, Brandt warns that stability alone does not signal a reversal. He urges traders to focus on the larger technical structure that continues to guide price action lower.
ADX Highlights Bearish Control; Bottom Seen in Late 2026
Brandt's chart also includes the Average Directional Index (ADX), which reads 28.27 — a level that indicates the prevailing trend is strong. In his assessment, sellers still control the market. He also notes a bearish marker that appeared after a downside break from an earlier consolidation range, a signal he considers still valid.
Given these conditions, Brandt expects Bitcoin to move lower within the descending channel before reaching a meaningful cyclical bottom. He predicts that process will conclude no earlier than September or October 2026. That timeline contrasts with recent market optimism fueled by easing geopolitical tensions and improved investor sentiment. Brandt maintains that technical conditions have not yet confirmed the start of a new bullish phase.
Long-Term Target of $127,500 Still in Play
Despite his near-term caution, Brandt has not turned bearish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects. His chart still identifies a cycle target near $127,500, indicating he expects a major rally once the corrective phase finishes. He also marks $24,825 as the key long-term support level for the current cycle. Brandt emphasizes that a move toward new all-time highs would require a confirmed breakout above the descending channel.
The bottom line from Brandt: the market must first complete its consolidation and bottoming process before a sustainable uptrend can begin. For now, patience may be more valuable than prediction.