Economist and long-time gold advocate Peter Schiff has intensified his bearish stance on bitcoin, warning that the cryptocurrency still has significant downside from current levels. In a series of tweets, he reiterated his earlier prediction that forced selling by long-term holders will worsen as the economy enters a deeper recession.
'Lion's Share of Selling Has Not Even Started'
Schiff tweeted on November 19 that "the lion's share of the selling has not even started yet. Bitcoin still has a long way to fall." He referenced a forecast he made in June that bitcoin holders without paychecks would be forced to sell to cover bills as the recession deepens. He also warned that many who profited from crypto could face lawsuits from those who lost money, telling pumpers to "lawyer up."
Commenting on the collapse of FTX and its former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, Schiff said he never investigated SBF because he never considered investing in FTX, but claimed that ten minutes of due diligence would have exposed red flags. He questioned the judgment of the entire crypto community for being "duped by an obvious conman."
GBTC Discount Signals Real Bitcoin Price
Schiff focused on Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), noting that its discount to net asset value (NAV) has widened to a record 46%. He argued that this implies bitcoin is already trading well below $10,000. "Based on GBTC's 46% discount to NAV, bitcoin is already trading well below $10K. I think this is the real price of bitcoin," he wrote. He added that selling GBTC yields real cash, while selling BTC yields Tether (USDT), and obtaining actual cash requires accepting a huge discount.
At the time of his comments, bitcoin was trading at around $16,727. His views sparked strong pushback. One user called his analysis "embarrassing," noting that Schiff has been bearish on bitcoin since it was $100. Another pointed out that the GBTC discount stems from forced liquidation by institutional holders who can only access bitcoin via GBTC, not from any fundamental flaw in bitcoin itself.
Market analyst Joe Consorti explained that GBTC has been dumped by institutions all year, and its parent company Digital Currency Group (DCG) has stepped in to mitigate selling pressure, but the discount still widened to -42.7%. Grayscale Investments separately assured clients that its digital asset products remain safe and secure.
Schiff's latest warnings come amid heightened market anxiety following the FTX collapse, with bitcoin trading near $16,700, far below its all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.