After Bitcoin's sharp correction from its all-time high of $64,000 to a low of $30,000 — a 53% drawdown — the crypto market has been searching for direction. On June 1, 2021, the pseudonymous creator of the popular stock-to-flow (S2F/S2FX) model, known as Plan B (@100trillionusd), added a new data point to his controversial chart, reigniting debate among traders and investors.
Model 'Intact' Despite 35% Monthly Drop
Plan B tweeted: “New dot: May close $37,341.. -35% .. we knew bitcoin would not go up in a straight line and several -35% drops are possible (and indeed likely) in a bull market. Starting to look like 2013. S2F(X) model intact.” Since March 2019, Plan B has been documenting his S2F model, which quantifies Bitcoin's scarcity relative to yearly issuance — similar to gold's stock-to-flow ratio. At present, Bitcoin's annual inflation rate stands at roughly 1.77% with a circulating supply of 18,723,781 BTC. The model had previously predicted a price trajectory reaching six figures by the end of 2021.
Community Vote: Overwhelmingly Bullish on S2F Signals
Plan B also launched a Twitter poll asking his 523,000 followers: “Will S2F break? Or will this turn out to be an excellent buy signal?” Out of more than 15,000 votes, 54.7% chose “buy signal,” while only 17.4% voted for “S2F will break.” Some respondents argued that Bitcoin would “drop back to $20k and bounce,” but the majority saw the current price level as a no-brainer buying opportunity.
When asked how he defines a model ‘break,’ Plan B clarified: “Let’s say break out of the 1stdev band and stay below $100k this year. i.e. 1 outlier will not break it, but structurally below model breaks it. Formulas and stats are in the s2f paper, so you could define it better.” This nuanced definition allows for temporary deviations while maintaining the model's long-term validity.
Echoes of 2013: Double-Top Pattern?
Plan B is not alone in seeing parallels with the 2013 bull run. On May 23, Bitcoin.com News reported that numerous traders and crypto proponents believe the current cycle mirrors the 2013 double-top pattern — where Bitcoin experienced a sharp correction before rallying to new highs. In 2013, the price surged from ~$200 to over $1,100 after a similar shakeout, validating the S2F model's predictive power at the time.
However, skeptics argue that the market structure has changed dramatically since 2013, with increased institutional participation, regulatory scrutiny, and global macroeconomic headwinds. A simple historical analogy might not hold in a more complex environment. The upcoming months will test whether Plan B's model can withstand the pressure of a potential structural breakdown.
For now, the S2F creator's confidence provides a narrative anchor for bullish investors. As one commentator noted, “When fear is at its peak, contrarian indicators often shine.” Whether Bitcoin will close above $100,000 by year-end — as the model suggests — remains the ultimate question.
Do you believe the S2F model will hold, or is a breakdown more likely? Share your thoughts in the comments.