Bitcoin analyst Plan B, best known for the stock-to-flow (S2F) valuation model, says the current market cycle may have moved into a bullish phase earlier than expected. Even so, he has not backed away from one of his most closely watched calls: Bitcoin above $100,000 in 2024. He also reiterated his longer-term view that the asset could move above $500,000 in 2025, while acknowledging that such projections come with a broad range of possible outcomes.
An “Early” Bull Market Around the 2024 Halving
In comments shared on X through his @100trillionusd account, Plan B told followers that the main issue with the current Bitcoin market is that it appears to have entered a bull market too soon. He contrasted the current setup with the pattern he associates with prior halving cycles. In his view, halvings usually occur during an accumulation phase, but the 2024 halving at block 840,000 took place while the market was already behaving more like a bull phase.
That shift matters because it suggests traders and investors may have been front-running the expected post-halving effect. In other words, the market may have priced in optimism ahead of schedule rather than waiting for the traditional cycle structure to unfold. According to the source material, the post drew significant engagement on social media, receiving more than 2,500 likes and around 320 reposts.
Plan B Reaffirms $100K in 2024 and $500K in 2025
Despite describing the market as premature in its bullish behavior, Plan B remained firm when asked whether his forecast for an average Bitcoin price of $532,000 in October and November 2025 was still intact. His answer was direct: he still expects Bitcoin to trade above $100,000 in 2024 and above $500,000 in 2025.
He also added an important caveat. The $500,000 figure is based on the S2F model and should be understood as part of a much wider prediction band. Plan B said the framework allows for a range of roughly $250,000 to $1 million, meaning outcomes such as a $300,000 average or a $700,000 average could still be seen as consistent with the model’s broader logic.
The Stock-to-Flow Model Returns to the Spotlight
Plan B’s remarks have again drawn attention to the stock-to-flow model, which has long been one of the most debated valuation approaches in the Bitcoin market. Supporters view it as a useful way to think about scarcity, especially in the context of Bitcoin’s fixed issuance schedule and periodic halvings. Critics, however, have often questioned whether a scarcity-based model can fully capture the many variables that drive real market prices.
In this case, Plan B’s latest comments are less about changing the destination and more about adjusting the route. He is not abandoning the bullish thesis. Instead, he is arguing that the market timeline may have shifted forward, with bullish sentiment and positioning appearing earlier than what previous cycles might have suggested. That distinction is important because it frames current volatility not necessarily as a breakdown of the thesis, but as a sign that the cycle may be evolving in its sequence.
Why the Market Is Watching Closely
Bitcoin’s fourth halving has kept analysts, traders, and long-term investors focused on the possibility of a major repricing phase. Historically, halving events have often served as central reference points for cycle analysis, even though no two cycles unfold in exactly the same way. Plan B’s assessment fits into that broader market conversation: if the bull market has indeed started earlier than normal, then traditional expectations around timing may need to be reconsidered.
At the same time, the magnitude of his targets ensures that his comments remain controversial. A move to $100,000 in 2024 would represent a major milestone for Bitcoin, while a rise to more than $500,000 in 2025 would imply an even more dramatic expansion in valuation. By openly emphasizing the wide prediction range around the S2F-based estimate, Plan B appears to be acknowledging uncertainty without giving up the central bullish case.
Outlook After the Fourth Halving
As the post-halving market develops, Plan B’s latest remarks reinforce a view shared by many cycle-focused Bitcoin observers: that the current phase could still have substantial upside even if its timing looks unusual. His argument is essentially that an early bull market does not invalidate the possibility of significantly higher prices. Instead, it may mean the market has moved ahead of itself temporarily before resuming a broader uptrend.
Whether Bitcoin actually reaches $100,000 before the end of 2024 remains to be seen, and the much larger 2025 target above $500,000 will continue to invite debate. Still, Plan B’s comments have added another layer to the ongoing discussion about how Bitcoin behaves after a halving, how much market participants price in ahead of time, and whether historical cycle frameworks remain useful in a market that continues to mature.
For now, his message is clear: even if the rally came early, he still believes Bitcoin is on track for major price milestones over the next two years.