Plan B, the pseudonymous creator of the popular Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) price model, has updated his infamous chart with the latest data point for May 2021. Despite Bitcoin falling 35% from its all-time high above $64,000 to a low near $30,000, Plan B asserts that the S2F cross-asset (S2FX) model remains “intact” and that current market action is “starting to look like 2013.”
New Dot: May Close at $37,341
On Tuesday, Plan B tweeted: “New dot: May close $37,341.. -35% .. we knew bitcoin would not go up in a straight line and several -35% drops are possible (and indeed likely) in a bull market.” The S2F model, which quantifies Bitcoin’s scarcity by comparing its circulating supply to annual issuance (factoring in halvings), has historically been a reliable long-term price predictor. Plan B emphasized that this is the second bounce off the lower band of the S2F model, noting that he knows “multiple hedge funds that actually trade this BTC-S2F ‘cointegration’ (despite that we can’t formally use cointegration tests because S2F ratio isn’t random).”
Starting to Look Like 2013
The pseudonymous analyst drew a parallel to the 2013 bull run, which featured a double-top pattern — first a sharp correction, then a powerful rally to new highs. “Starting to look like 2013,” he wrote to his 523,000 followers. In 2013, Bitcoin experienced two major drawdowns of more than 50% before eventually surging to over $1,100. Plan B’s remark signals that he believes the current correction is a healthy retrace within a continuing uptrend, not the end of the bull market.
Will S2F Break or Is This a Buy Signal?
Plan B also launched a Twitter poll asking whether the S2F model would break or if the current price action represents an excellent buying opportunity. Out of over 15,000 votes at the time of writing, 54.7% selected “Buy signal,” while 17.4% chose “S2F will break.” When asked how he defines a “break,” Plan B replied: “Let’s say break out of the 1stdev band and stay below $100k this year. i.e. 1 outlier will not break it, but structurally below model breaks it. Formulas and stats are in the s2f paper, so you could define it better.” Some respondents argued that Bitcoin could “go back to $20k and bounce,” while others called the buy signal a “no brainer.”
Market Sentiment: Echoes of 2013 Double Top
Plan B is not alone in drawing comparisons to 2013. Earlier reports from Bitcoin.com News highlighted that many traders and crypto proponents believe the current cycle mirrors the double-top structure of 2013 — a steep decline followed by a strong recovery. At press time, Bitcoin was trading around $37,300, struggling to reclaim the $38,000 resistance level. The S2F model, which has been widely followed since its introduction in early 2019, continues to suggest that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains bullish, as long as the price does not structurally fall below the model’s lower bands. Whether this prediction holds will depend on how the market navigates the weeks and months ahead.