Bitcoin stock-to-flow creator Plan B has added a new data point to his closely watched chart and reiterated that the S2F and S2FX models remain intact, even after a severe market correction. His comments came after Bitcoin fell sharply from its all-time high above $64,000 to around $30,000 within roughly 30 days, a drawdown of about 53%. Rather than treating the move as evidence that the model has failed, Plan B argued that this kind of volatility is consistent with prior bull markets and said the current structure is “starting to look like 2013.”
What Plan B’s Stock-to-Flow Model Measures
Plan B, the pseudonymous analyst behind the @100trillionusd account, has documented his stock-to-flow framework publicly since March 2019. The model attempts to quantify Bitcoin’s scarcity by comparing the existing circulating supply with the rate of new annual issuance. In that sense, it borrows from the logic traditionally used to evaluate scarce assets such as gold, while also incorporating Bitcoin’s programmed issuance schedule and halving cycles.
Over time, Plan B expanded the concept into a broader stock-to-flow cross-asset framework, or S2FX, intended to compare Bitcoin with other scarce assets through a similar valuation lens. The model has become one of the most widely discussed frameworks in Bitcoin market analysis, often referenced alongside other long-term tools such as logarithmic growth curves and ratio-based valuation bands.
Sharp Corrections Do Not Necessarily Invalidate the Model
At the time referenced in the source material, Bitcoin’s annual inflation rate was approximately 1.77%, with a circulating supply of 18,723,781 BTC. Despite the scale of the selloff, Plan B maintained that the correction did not automatically amount to a structural break in the model. He pointed to a May closing price near $37,341, down roughly 35%, and noted that Bitcoin was never expected to rise “in a straight line.” In his view, multiple drawdowns of that magnitude are possible, and even likely, during a broader bull market.
That framing is central to his current argument. The stock-to-flow thesis is not based on the assumption of smooth, uninterrupted upside. Instead, it implies that Bitcoin’s price may move violently around a scarcity-based trajectory over time. Seen from that perspective, a deep retracement may be painful for traders but still fall within the range of outcomes the model can tolerate.
“Starting to Look Like 2013”
One of the most debated aspects of Plan B’s latest comments is his comparison to 2013. That year is frequently cited by market participants because Bitcoin experienced a volatile bull market that some observers describe as having a “double top” structure. By saying the current action is starting to resemble 2013, Plan B aligned himself with a wider group of traders and analysts who believe the present cycle may include a similar pattern of sharp advances, deep corrections, and renewed upside attempts.
In his comments, Plan B also described the recent move as the second bounce off the lower band of the S2F model. That observation raised a key question for investors: is the market testing the lower edge of a still-valid model, or is it beginning to deviate in a way that signals failure? Plan B openly framed the issue as a fork in the road, asking whether S2F will break or whether the move will ultimately prove to be an excellent buy signal.
How the Market Reacted
To gauge sentiment, Plan B launched a poll asking followers whether they believed the model would break or whether the current setup represented a strong buying opportunity. According to the source material, more than 15,000 votes had been cast at that point. Of those respondents, 54.7% said the move looked like a “buy signal,” while 17.4% believed “S2F will break.” Other participants offered more cautious views, including the possibility that Bitcoin could revisit $20,000 before bouncing.
The poll highlights a recurring feature of Bitcoin market debates: long-term valuation models can be highly influential, but they rarely produce unanimous conviction during periods of stress. For bullish investors, a large deviation from trend may look like an opportunity. For skeptics, the same deviation may suggest that the assumptions embedded in the model are too rigid or too simplistic for real-world markets.
Plan B’s Definition of a Model Break
When asked how he would define a true break of the model, Plan B offered a more specific answer. He suggested that a break could be understood as Bitcoin moving below the 1 standard deviation band and staying under $100,000 for the year. In other words, a single outlier would not be enough to invalidate the framework. What would matter is a sustained, structural move below the model’s expected range.
This distinction is important because it shows that Plan B does not treat every short-term undershoot as fatal. His position is that extreme volatility can coexist with a still-usable long-term model, provided the broader trajectory remains statistically consistent over time. That said, his own wording also leaves room for eventual invalidation if the deviation becomes durable rather than temporary.
Broader Context Around Bitcoin’s Price Action
The source material also notes that Bitcoin had recently tried to reclaim the $38,000 level, but bulls failed to push the asset decisively above that range. That inability to break higher added to the uncertainty surrounding the market’s next move. Traders were therefore left balancing two competing narratives: one focused on the damage caused by a steep retracement, and another emphasizing that historical bull cycles have often included brutal corrections before trend continuation.
Plan B is not alone in viewing the current market cycle through the lens of 2013. Other commentators and crypto market participants have also pointed to similarities with that period, especially the possibility of a two-stage bull run rather than a single uninterrupted climb. Whether that analogy proves accurate remains unresolved, but it has become an important frame for interpreting present conditions.
The Core Debate Around S2F
At the center of the discussion is a larger question about Bitcoin valuation itself. Supporters of stock-to-flow argue that scarcity remains one of the most powerful long-term drivers of Bitcoin’s price and that halving-driven supply dynamics should continue to matter. Critics, however, argue that any model built too heavily on supply metrics may understate the role of demand, macro conditions, leverage, regulation, and market structure.
Plan B’s latest remarks do not settle that debate, but they do clarify his stance. He is not interpreting the latest collapse as proof of failure. Instead, he sees it as a severe but still potentially normal bull-market shakeout, one that may fit within the lower boundaries of the model rather than decisively break it.
For now, the S2F conversation remains open. Bitcoin’s next major moves will likely determine whether this period is remembered as a routine deviation within a broader cycle or as a moment when one of crypto’s best-known valuation models began to lose its explanatory power. Until then, Plan B’s message is straightforward: despite the pain of the correction, the model is still intact, and the market may be behaving more like a historical bull cycle than a complete structural breakdown.