PlanB said in a post on X that Bitcoin is trading at about $87,000 and has moved above all major realized price levels he tracks. He listed the aggregate realized price at roughly $53,000, the 155-day realized price at about $72,000, and the 2-year realized price at around $86,000. Based on those levels, he said the odds of BTC falling below $53,000 in the current cycle are now low. He also argued that the view that Bitcoin would revisit the aggregate realized price, as it did in prior bear markets, has lost what he described as its last relatively clear condition for holding. In the same post, PlanB said price action in 2025 and 2026 fits the pattern of a historically milder bull-bear cycle. He added that he expects Bitcoin to print a new all-time high during the current halving cycle, which he defined as running from 2024 to 2028.
PlanB wrote on X that BTC is trading near $87,000 right now and has moved above every major realized price level.
He put the aggregate realized price at about $53,000, the 155-day realized price near $72,000, and the 2-year realized price around $86,000.
PlanB said the odds of BTC dropping below $53,000 in the current cycle are now low. And he argued that the idea that "BTC will retest the aggregate realized price like it did in earlier bear markets" has now lost what he called its last fairly clear basis for holding up.
He also said price action in 2025 and 2026 fits the pattern of a historically milder bull-bear cycle, and he expects BTC to set a new high during the current halving cycle running from 2024 to 2028.
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