PlanB said Bitcoin may not have formed a real bottom yet. In a recent post on X, the analyst noted that BTC posted a $73,568 close in May, but short-term quantitative signals still do not show a confirmed low, leading him to assign a greater than 50% chance of more downside.
The anonymous Dutch quant, widely known for creating Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow, or S2F, model, described the market as deeply split. One camp sees $60,000 in February as the low for this correction. Another thinks the decline could keep running.
Short-term downside levels include the 200-week average and realized price
PlanB said that if the current pullback extends, Bitcoin could revisit the 200-week moving average, which he placed near $61,000. He also pointed to the network’s realized price, around $53,000, as a lower area that cannot be ruled out.
His warning was framed as a short-term market view, not a call on Bitcoin’s long-run value. That distinction matters. PlanB said the bearish case comes from current indicators rather than from the S2F model itself.
PlanB says the warning is personal opinion, not an S2F forecast
The post drew pushback on social media, where some users resurfaced his earlier comment that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 in 2026 and questioned the accuracy of the S2F framework. In response, PlanB said the latest downside warning is his “personal opinion” and should not be treated as a strict model output.
He added that the S2F model is meant to describe the long-term link between scarcity and asset value. For short-term price calls, he said traders need other tools, including RSI, moving averages, realized price, and the share of addresses in profit. By his reading, those shorter-term signals still do not point to a completed bottom.