Pseudonymous analyst PlanB says Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model still points to a major long-term upside scenario, with an average price of $500,000 projected for the 2024-2028 halving cycle. If the model continues to hold, the implication is not only that Bitcoin could reach that level, but also that it may spend meaningful time trading above it during the cycle.
S2F framework remains central to the bullish case
The S2F model is built around Bitcoin’s scarcity, comparing existing supply with the rate of new issuance. Because each halving reduces the amount of newly mined BTC entering the market, supporters of the model argue that declining supply growth should support higher valuations over time. In PlanB’s latest analysis, Bitcoin’s historical price action is overlaid with indicators including the 200-week moving average and realized cost price, which he says still support the broader structure of the model.
Bitcoin has also recently reclaimed the $70,000 level after a period of volatility. While that move does not validate the full forecast on its own, it is presented as consistent with the idea that the broader long-term uptrend may still be intact.
On-chain data shows uneven market positioning
At the same time, the report notes that roughly 43% of Bitcoin addresses are currently at a loss. Those losses are said to be concentrated mainly among short-term holders, underscoring the gap between long-term bullish projections and near-term market pain. Bitcoin is also still trading below its October 2025 peak, suggesting that many newer entrants remain under pressure despite the recent rebound.
Overall, PlanB’s view revives debate around halving cycles and scarcity-based valuation models. Still, the projection should be understood as a model-driven long-range framework rather than a definitive forecast for short-term price action.