PPP’s prediction market tracker shows Polymarket pricing a 25% chance that the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield will reach 6% before 2027, down 25% over the past 24 hours. The contract resolves to Yes if the 30-year yield reaches or exceeds 6% on any day from Sept. 3, 2026 through Dec. 31, 2026. It resolves to No otherwise. Settlement is based solely on the U.S. Treasury Department’s Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, specifically the 30 Yr field. If the target level is reached, the market can settle early. If no qualifying data is published by Jan. 14, 2027 at 23:59 ET, and the Dec. 31 reading is still unavailable, the contract resolves to No. The update was cited by Odaily from PPP’s monitoring of the market.
PPP’s prediction market tracker showed that Polymarket was assigning a 25% probability to the contract on whether the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield will hit 6% before 2027. The reading was down 25% over the past 24 hours.
How the market resolves
The contract resolves to Yes if the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield reaches or exceeds 6% on any day between Sept. 3, 2026 and Dec. 31, 2026. If that does not happen, it resolves to No.
The only settlement source is the U.S. Treasury Department’s Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, using the 30 Yr entry. If the yield reaches the target, the market can settle early.
If qualifying data has still not been published by Jan. 14, 2027 at 23:59 ET, and the Dec. 31 data remains unavailable, the contract resolves to No.
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