Prediction market Polymarket now assigns a roughly 60% chance that the U.S. Clarity Act will be signed into law by 2026, according to the latest update shared by BSCNews on X. Traders are increasingly betting on the passage of this crypto regulatory bill.
Probability Rose from 53% to 61–62%
Polymarket hosts a specific market asking: “Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?” It resolves “Yes” if Congress passes the proposal and the President signs it before December 31, 2026. Odds have climbed from around 53% to 59%, recently hovering near 61–62%. Media outlets summarize that as roughly a 60% chance. The steady uptrend signals growing confidence that lawmakers can reach an agreement.
Prediction markets matter because they translate collective belief into measurable probability. Rising percentages indicate improving sentiment, while sudden drops signal uncertainty. For the Clarity Act, Polymarket data serves as a real-time barometer of industry expectations.
Armstrong: Negotiations Making “Great Progress”
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC that discussions are making “great progress” and there is now a clear path forward. He expects Trump to sign the proposal soon, citing reasons: the President holds final approval, the administration has shown support for crypto regulation, the framework aligns with broader policy priorities, and lawmakers want progress before political conditions shift. Armstrong called a successful outcome “a win for crypto industry growth, a win for banking integration, and a win for consumer protection.”
Earlier talks stalled due to disagreements between banks and blockchain firms over oversight, stablecoin treatment, and compliance standards. Recent reports indicate that both sides are moving toward common ground, with compromise models being developed that balance innovation and risk management.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that clearer digital asset rules could stabilize investor confidence and strengthen market sentiment. Industry watchers believe that if the bill passes, institutional participation will rise, uncertainty will drop, and long-term ecosystem growth will get a boost.