PPP’s prediction market tracker shows that the Polymarket contract on whether the average number of ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be below 25 by the end of September is now pricing in a 9% chance, down 38% over the past 24 hours. The market is tied to IMF Portwatch shipping transit data for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and will be settled using the 7-day moving average of "Arrivals of Ships" for Sept. 30, 2026. The rules also spell out which vessel types count, excluding ships not tracked by IMF Portwatch. If rounded chart figures differ from the downloadable raw data and that difference affects the outcome, unrounded data will decide the result. Settlement can take place once the data is published. If the Sept. 30 data is still unavailable within 14 calendar days, the market will use the latest available release at that time. In cases of clear data-entry or completeness errors in the first release, settlement may be delayed until the end of the third calendar day after publication to allow for an official correction.
PPP’s prediction market tracker shows that the Polymarket contract on whether the average number of ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be below 25 by the end of September is now at 9%, down 38% over the past 24 hours.
Settlement benchmark tied to IMF Portwatch
The market uses shipping transit data for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait published by IMF Portwatch. Specifically, settlement will be based on the 7-day moving average of "Arrivals of Ships" for Sept. 30, 2026.
Scope and settlement rules
The count includes container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Any ships not counted by IMF Portwatch are excluded.
If rounded figures shown on the chart differ from the original unrounded data in the downloadable file and that difference affects the final outcome, the unrounded data will control settlement. The market can settle once the data is published.
If the data for Sept. 30 has still not been released within 14 calendar days, settlement will use the latest available data published by that point. If the first published data contains a clear data-entry error or a data completeness error, the market may wait until the end of the third calendar day after publication for an official correction. A difference between IMF data and data from other institutions does not qualify as a data error.
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