Traders on prediction market Polymarket pushed the odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 up to 35% on July 17, rebounding from a 24% low recorded on July 13. The contract had traded near 74% in May before slipping to 48% in June as negotiations dragged on.
The move came as Senate Republicans prepared to release the final text of the CLARITY Act after a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Senator Bernie Moreno said an updated version of the bill would be released after that meeting, with the Senate floor targeted for the week of July 20.
The bill needs 60 votes to pass in the Senate. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, meaning at least seven Democrats would need to back it. Democratic negotiators said the draft expected to reach the floor was not the version they had agreed to, with disputes centered on ethics provisions tied to Trump’s commercial interests in the crypto industry.
Traders on Polymarket raised the odds that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026 to 35% on July 17, up from a 24% low hit on July 13.
Odds recover from recent low
The contract had traded near 74% in May. In June, it fell to 48% as negotiations dragged on. The latest bounce came as Senate Republicans moved closer to releasing the bill’s final text.
Senate Republicans target post-meeting release
Senate Republicans plan to publish the final text of the CLARITY Act after meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Senator Bernie Moreno said the updated text would be released after the meeting, and the target for Senate floor consideration is the week of July 20.
Vote count and dispute lines
The bill needs 60 votes to clear the Senate. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, so support from at least seven Democrats would be required. Democratic negotiators said the draft expected to go to the floor was not the version they had agreed to. The main dispute is over ethics provisions involving Trump’s commercial interests in the crypto industry.
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