Polymarket data shows the market assigning a 61% chance that Democrats will win control of both chambers in the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. The political setup matters for crypto policy after the Senate voted down the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or CLARITY Act, on Sept. 15, a bill designed to define which regulators would oversee tokens. One of the bill’s main opponents, Senate Banking Committee Democrat Elizabeth Warren, could shape the committee’s agenda if Democrats prevail and she becomes chair. At the same time, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to a 3.75%-4% range on Sept. 16, and 16 of 18 officials projected more rate increases before year-end. For investors, that has left monetary policy looking like the more immediate force behind Bitcoin price moves than legislation. Market analysis cited in the report said that if Bitcoin holds its gains, buyers may have already absorbed the tightening outlook; if it falls back, that would point to a stronger impact from Fed policy. The report also noted that crypto super PAC Fairshake launched a $30 million advertising campaign targeting Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown’s Ohio Senate race.
Polymarket data shows the market assigning a 61% probability that Democrats will win control of both chambers in the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3, according to Techub News, citing BeInCrypto.
Senate vote and committee leadership are in focus
The Senate voted down the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or CLARITY Act, on Sept. 15. The bill was intended to clarify which regulators would have jurisdiction over tokens.
Elizabeth Warren, the Senate Banking Committee’s Democratic leader and a main opponent of the bill, could determine the committee agenda if Democrats win and she takes the chair.
Rate policy is seen as the bigger near-term driver for Bitcoin
The Federal Reserve raised rates to a 3.75%-4% range on Sept. 16. Of 18 officials, 16 expect additional rate hikes before the end of the year.
For investors, monetary policy now appears to matter more for Bitcoin pricing than legislation. Market analysis cited in the report said that if Bitcoin can hold its advance, it would suggest buyers have absorbed expectations for further rate hikes. If it pulls back, that would indicate a stronger effect from Federal Reserve policy.
Fairshake launches ad campaign
At the same time, crypto super PAC Fairshake launched a $30 million advertising campaign targeting Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown’s Ohio Senate race.
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