Polymarket data shows George Russell's probability of winning the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix has risen to 49%, up 13% in 24 hours. Pierre Gasly's probability surged from 0% to 6% after qualifying. Qualifying saw Gasly take his first career pole, Russell second, and Piastri penalized, promoting Ferrari's Leclerc and Hamilton to third and fourth on the grid.
PPP prediction market tool data says Polymarket's contract for "George Russell to win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix" has jumped to 49%, up 13% in the past 24 hours. And Pierre Gasly's win odds, out of nowhere, went from 0% to 6%.
The 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix is scheduled to begin at 21:00 Beijing time (13:00 UTC) on Sunday at Monza. Qualifying threw up a few real shocks, and that swung driver championship predictions hard. Alpine's Pierre Gasly grabbed the first pole position of his career with a brilliant 1:21.786 lap, while championship favorite George Russell slotted in just behind him in second. Oscar Piastri qualified third, but a three-place grid penalty for impeding another driver changed that. So Ferrari's Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton moved up to third and fourth on the starting grid for the race.
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