PPP prediction market data shows that a Polymarket account, which has earned over $270,000 in profit over the past week, bought $938,000 worth of shares betting the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting. The account paid an average of 39.3 cents per share and now holds 2,017,336 contracts on that outcome. It also holds roughly $3.06 million in shares tied to the Fed not cutting rates by 25 basis points in September, with an average entry price of 98.2 cents. The market settles based on the actual rate change following the FOMC meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026. If the movement does not match any of the offered options, it will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points — a 12.5 bps hike or cut, for example, would be counted as 25 bps. Should the Fed fail to issue a statement before the meeting ends, the event will settle as 'no change.'
PPP prediction market data shows that in the "Will the Fed hold rates steady in September?" event on Polymarket, an account (0x3a8aa345d5db7ec5138298c8c4f4540259be7699) that has generated over $270,000 in profit over the past week bought $938,000 worth of shares in the "Fed to hike 25 bps in September" outcome, at an average price of 39.3 cents per share, holding 2,017,336 shares.
The same account also holds shares worth approximately $3.06 million in the "Fed will NOT cut 25 bps in September" outcome, with an average entry price of 98.2 cents.
According to the settlement rules, the market will be settled based on the interest rate change after the September 2026 FOMC meeting. If the actual adjustment is not among the existing options, it will be rounded up to the nearest 25 bps — for example, a 12.5 bps cut or hike will be counted as 25 bps. If no relevant statement is released before the meeting ends, the event will settle as "no change." The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 15-16, 2026.
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