PPP, a prediction-market tracking tool, said a Polymarket account with more than $400,000 in cumulative profit has taken a large position on the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision. The wallet, 0x3a8aa345d5db7ec5138298c8c4f4540259be7699, bought $3.09 million worth of shares tied to a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, entering at an average price of 54.3 cents for 3,891,751.5 shares. The same account also holds roughly $3.07 million on the outcome that the Fed will not cut rates by 25 basis points, with an average entry price of 98.2 cents and 3,088,869.0 shares. Under the market’s settlement rules, the contract will resolve based on the rate change announced after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in September 2026. If the actual move does not match an existing option, it will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. For example, a 12.5-basis-point cut or hike would be counted as 25 basis points. If no statement is released before the meeting ends, the market resolves to unchanged. The Fed’s next FOMC meeting is scheduled for Sept. 15-16, 2026.
PPP, a prediction-market tracking tool, said that in Polymarket’s market on whether the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged in September, an account with more than $400,000 in cumulative profit bought $3.09 million worth of shares on a 25-basis-point rate hike.
The account, 0x3a8aa345d5db7ec5138298c8c4f4540259be7699, entered the position at an average price of 54.3 cents and bought 3,891,751.5 shares.
The same account also holds about $3.07 million on the outcome that the Fed will not cut rates by 25 basis points. That position was opened at an average price of 98.2 cents, with 3,088,869.0 shares purchased.
Under the settlement rules, the market will resolve based on the rate change following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in September 2026. If the size of the rate move does not fit one of the listed options, it will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. A 12.5-basis-point cut or hike, for example, would be treated as 25 basis points.
If no related statement is released before the meeting ends, the event will resolve to unchanged. The Federal Reserve’s next FOMC meeting is scheduled for Sept. 15-16, 2026.
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