Polymarket, a popular prediction market, shows that the probability of Apple's foldable iPhone launching in the US at a price above $2,300 has fallen to 15%, down 35% over the past week. The probability of the price exceeding $2,200 is now 42%, a 17% weekly drop. The contract's rules specify that any foldable smartphone from Apple qualifies, even if not named 'iPhone'. If Apple releases multiple models, the lowest starting price is used. If no price is announced by September 30, 2026, the contract resolves to 'NO'. Apple's fall event is scheduled for September 10, 2026, but leaked Vodafone backend data from Australia reveals the iPhone Ultra at 256GB/512GB/1TB, starting at 3,699 AUD, leading analysts to estimate a US price around $2,000.
Polymarket Odds Plummet on Foldable iPhone Price Bets
Data from the prediction market Polymarket shows the probability of Apple's foldable iPhone launching at a price above $2,300 in the US has dropped to 15%, a decline of 35% over the past week. The odds for a price above $2,200 also fell, now at 42%, down 17% weekly.
Contract Rules
The prediction contract defines a foldable iPhone as any foldable smartphone released by Apple, regardless of whether it is officially called 'iPhone'. If the initial US launch price meets or exceeds the specified threshold, the market resolves to 'YES'. If Apple releases multiple foldable models, the lowest starting price is used. In the event Apple does not announce a price by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026, the market resolves to 'NO'.
Apple Event and Leaked Pricing
Apple has officially announced its fall 2026 product launch event for September 10 at 1:00 AM Beijing time, with the theme 'Surprise and Shine'. However, leaked backend pricing from Vodafone's Australian and Egyptian operations suggests the iPhone Ultra will be available in 256GB, 512GB, and 1TB storage options, starting at 3,699 AUD. Industry observers estimate that the US version of the Ultra could start around $2,000.
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