Polymarket is reviewing dozens of recently opened wallets that wagered on Israel’s Oct. 27 election, the company’s investigative team told Bloomberg in a report published Thursday, Oct. 29. Reuters later carried a summary of the Bloomberg report the same day.
The election drew heavy betting on the platform. Unchained’s review of Polymarket’s own market data on Friday found that the platform’s three main markets tied to the vote — which party would win the most seats, Likud’s seat count, and the next prime minister — logged about $106.4 million in combined trading volume.
It was not immediately clear how much of that volume came from the flagged wallets. Bloomberg reported that some of the accounts involved have together cashed out more than $100,000, while many wallets are still holding paper gains.
Fresh wallets placed bets shortly before voting ended
According to the report, hundreds of fresh accounts placed the bets shortly before voting closed on Tuesday. The wagers backed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to keep his job and Likud to win the most seats. Those positions turned profitable after exit polls showed Netanyahu’s party winning more seats than early reports had suggested.
Bubblemaps told Reuters it counted 101 Polymarket accounts that received their first funding on election day before voting closed. Polysights, which tracks Polymarket flows, posted on X after polls closed that its tools had detected massive inflows of YES buys on fresh wallets as Netanyahu’s odds climbed, adding that the activity was 「definitely worth investigating」.
Bloomberg said both firms view the activity as suspicious and are continuing to examine it.
Bloomberg said the findings are not conclusive
Bloomberg also cautioned that the findings were not conclusive, noting that potential insider trading can be difficult to distinguish from original research or a lucky bet. No trader has been publicly accused of wrongdoing.
As of Friday, Polymarket’s market on which party would win the most seats priced Likud at about 99%, though the market had not yet resolved.
What Polymarket’s rules prohibit
Polymarket’s market integrity page says its terms bar trading based on stolen confidential information, illegal tips, or an event the trader has the power to influence.
On enforcement, the company states: 「We can ban wallets, take legal action, or refer matters to law enforcement when warranted.」 It also says it has referred more than 90 accounts to law enforcement and is working with authorities on open investigations.
Part of a broader run of prediction-market insider trading cases
The review comes after a series of insider-trading cases across prediction markets. In April, federal prosecutors charged a U.S. Army master sergeant with using classified intelligence about the Maduro raid to win more than $409,000 on Polymarket.
Earlier this month, Kalshi began reviewing three small bets that backed the White House press secretary pick before it was reported. Last month, the House Oversight Committee widened its insider trading probe to more platforms.
