Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are in active talks for new funding rounds, each targeting a valuation of around $20 billion. According to The Wall Street Journal, both firms have held preliminary discussions with potential investors, a move that would roughly double their most recent valuations.
The Sector Boom: From Elections to Everyday Events
Prediction markets let users bet on future events—politics, economics, sports, weather—while platforms collect fees. Trading volumes surged during the 2024 US presidential election, drawing retail and institutional participants. By 2026, a friendlier regulatory environment (Kalshi received full CFTC oversight; Polymarket moved toward compliance via acquisitions and partnerships) pushed weekly notional trading volumes well into the billions, making prediction markets one of fintech's hottest verticals.
Polymarket: Chain-Based Heavyweight with ICE Backing
Polymarket relies on blockchain technology and boasts a strong crypto following. In October 2025, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), parent of the NYSE, invested $2 billion, valuing the firm at roughly $9 billion. The platform excels in global events and geopolitical markets, allowing users to wager on elections, conflicts, and policy outcomes on-chain.
Kalshi: First CFTC License Opens Mainstream Doors
Kalshi, the first prediction market to gain full CFTC oversight, raised $1 billion in December 2025 at a valuation of $11 billion. The round was led by Paradigm, with Sequoia and a16z among the followers. Kalshi emphasizes regulatory compliance and mainstream finance integration, having embedded trading features with Robinhood and Coinbase, gradually bringing prediction markets to ordinary investors.
Both funding discussions remain at an early stage, and whether they will close at $20 billion each is uncertain. Success would further cement their leadership in the space and inject strong confidence into the broader fintech sector.