Following U.S. President Joe Biden's approval for Ukraine to use American-made long-range missiles against targets inside Russia, fears of nuclear conflict have surged. On the blockchain-based prediction marketplace Polymarket, traders are betting on whether a nuclear weapon will detonate before the end of 2024. The wager has attracted $1.64 million in trading volume, yet odds remain low at just 11% as of Nov. 19.
Biden's decision has been condemned by Russia as an escalation. A Russian lawmaker called it a “very big step toward World War III,” warning that it could pull NATO and the U.S. directly into the conflict. Polymarket's rules stipulate that the market resolves to “Yes” if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world before Dec. 31, 2024, 11:59 p.m. ET; otherwise, it resolves to “No.”
Nuclear Odds and Market Sentiment
With odds at 11%, one commenter quipped, “literally free money guys,” implying a low probability of an explosion. Financial blog Zero Hedge also chimed in on X, posting “Good luck collecting ‘YES.’” Meanwhile, Polymarket users are also betting on a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire in 2024, with sentiment overwhelmingly pessimistic: only 7% believe a ceasefire is likely, while 94% bet the conflict will continue.
CNN reported that months of deliberation preceded Biden's approval to use Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) within Russia. The move has heightened geopolitical tensions, and crypto prediction markets have become a novel venue for speculators to assess risk.