Data from the PPP prediction-market tracker shows Polymarket bets on OpenAI releasing Astra before Sept. 11 have climbed to 86%, up 41% in 24 hours. Bets on a release before Sept. 15 now sit at 91%, up 29% over the same stretch. Under the market's terms, the event resolves to “Yes” if OpenAI publicly launches Astra before the cutoff, or ships a product that official sources or credible media confirm is the same model as the previously announced Astra; otherwise it resolves to “No.” Names that count include Astra, Astra 1, Astra 6 and GPT-6 Astra, and a renamed release is acceptable. Models such as GPT-5.7 or GPT-6 only count if confirmed to be the same model as the earlier Astra. Public access is required: an open beta or an open waitlist works, while closed testing and private access don't. Resolution will rely primarily on official OpenAI statements and will weigh credible media consensus.
Polymarket participants pushed the odds of an OpenAI Astra release before Sept. 11 to 86%, up 41% in the past 24 hours. The figures come from PPP, a prediction-market monitoring tool.
A second contract, covering a release before Sept. 15, now sits at 91%. It rose 29% over the same period.
Resolution rules are specific. The contract pays “Yes” if OpenAI publicly releases Astra before the stated date, or ships a product that official sources or credible media confirm is the same model as the Astra that OpenAI previously described. If not, it pays “No.”
Names are flexible. A qualifying release could carry the Astra, Astra 1, Astra 6, or GPT-6 Astra name, and a renamed product still counts. GPT-5.7 and GPT-6 only count once confirmed to be the same model as the earlier Astra.
The access requirement is also defined. A public release includes open beta testing or an open waitlist. Closed testing and private access do not qualify.
For final settlement, the market will rely mainly on OpenAI’s official information and consider consensus reports from credible media.
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