PPP’s prediction-market tracker shows that on Polymarket, the contract on whether OpenAI will have the best image-editing AI by the end of September is now priced at 93%, up 43% over the past week. The market is set to resolve based on which company owns the model ranked No. 1 on arena.ai’s Image Edit Arena leaderboard at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Sept. 30, 2026. Resolution will use the Overall leaderboard with the filter set to Models. Entries marked AutoEval are excluded, while models labeled Preliminary remain eligible. Rank is the primary criterion. If multiple models share the same rank, the one displayed higher on the leaderboard takes precedence. If that still does not break the tie, the contract will use alphabetical order based on the company names listed in the market. If arena.ai is temporarily unavailable at the resolution time, the market will stay open until the leaderboard becomes accessible again and can be checked for the first time. If the leaderboard becomes permanently unusable, the contract resolves to Other.
PPP’s prediction-market tracker shows that on Polymarket, the odds for the contract on whether OpenAI will have the best image-editing AI by the end of September now stand at 93%, up 43% over the past week.
Resolution tied to the arena.ai leaderboard
The market will resolve according to the company behind the model ranked first on arena.ai’s Image Edit Arena leaderboard at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Sept. 30, 2026.
For resolution, the contract will use the Image Edit Arena Overall leaderboard with the filter set to "Models." Models marked "AutoEval" will not be counted, while models labeled "Preliminary" will remain eligible.
Tie-break rules
The contract uses "Rank" as the primary criterion. If multiple models share the same rank, the model shown higher on the leaderboard will take priority. If the result is still tied, the market will decide based on alphabetical order of the company names listed in the contract.
If the leaderboard is unavailable
If the arena.ai leaderboard is temporarily inaccessible at that time, the market will remain open and resolve after the leaderboard becomes available again and can be checked for the first time. If the leaderboard becomes permanently unusable, the contract will resolve to "Other."
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