PPP’s prediction market tracker shows shifting odds on Polymarket for when OpenAI might go public. The probability of an OpenAI IPO by March 31, 2027 has dropped to 33%, down 18% over the past week. In contrast, the probability of an IPO by June 30, 2027 has risen to 55%, up 5% on the week.
The market’s settlement rules are specific: the contract resolves to Yes only if OpenAI completes an initial public offering before the stated deadline in U.S. Eastern Time, and that outcome is confirmed by an official company announcement and credible news reporting. If those conditions are not met, the contract resolves to No. The same No outcome applies immediately if OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already publicly listed.
The repricing follows earlier comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who said the company will not pursue an IPO this year and that any listing plan has been pushed back until at least 2027. Altman also said the current state of AI safety makes this an unsuitable time to go public, adding that the company is under no pressure to list.
PPP’s prediction market tracker shows that on Polymarket, the odds of OpenAI completing an IPO by March 31, 2027 have fallen to 33%, down 18% over the past week. The probability of an IPO by June 30, 2027, meanwhile, has climbed to 55%, up 5% week over week.
How the contracts are priced
The two contracts track different deadlines. Current pricing points to weaker expectations for an OpenAI public listing by the end of March 2027, while the contract tied to the end of June 2027 has moved higher.
Settlement terms
Under the settlement rules, the market resolves to Yes if OpenAI completes an initial public offering before the specified deadline in U.S. Eastern Time and the outcome is confirmed by both an official company announcement and credible news sources. Otherwise, the market resolves to No.
If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already publicly listed, the market immediately resolves to No.
Altman’s earlier comments
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman previously said the company will not pursue an IPO this year and that any listing plan has been delayed until at least 2027. He also said that, given the current situation in AI safety, this is not the right time for OpenAI to go public and that the company is not under pressure to list.
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