Polymarket is putting market prices on two major Taiwan political questions. As of early March, the contract on whether Zheng Liwen will have a direct interaction before June 30, 2026 with Xi Jinping showed 34% odds for Yes. A separate market on whether Lai Ching-te will lose the presidency before the end of 2026 was far more one-sided: 88% on No and 12% on Yes.
Zheng-Xi contract leads recent Taiwan political markets
The Zheng Liwen market opened on December 27, 2025 and had traded about $228,000 by early March, making it the most active recent Taiwan politics contract cited in the source material. Its rules are narrow. For the market to resolve Yes, Zheng and Xi must have a direct interaction by June 30, 2026, such as a conversation or a handshake. General statements or indirect signals are not enough.
Zheng, who was elected Kuomintang chair in October last year, has already stated that she would not go to mainland China without an arrangement to meet Xi Jinping. Even with that public position on the table, traders have not assigned high odds to an actual meeting.
Why traders remain cautious on the meeting
The source notes that Xi sent a congratulatory message after Zheng won the party chair election, while also saying that “the trend toward reunification is unstoppable.” That did not settle the key issue for the market. The real question is whether a party chair would be granted a meeting at the highest level, and traders appear to see that as uncertain.
Domestic political calculations also weigh on the contract. Some figures inside the Kuomintang are said to worry that if a Zheng-Xi meeting takes shape around the November 2026 local elections, it could fuel voter concerns over a China-leaning line and hurt the party electorally. The source also points to controversy stirred by Zheng’s comments in a February interview with British media, where she said people in Taiwan should accept that they are Chinese.
Only 12% bet on Lai losing office in 2026
The Lai Ching-te contract has seen much lighter activity, with trading volume at roughly $16,000. Still, the market signal is clearer than in the Zheng-Xi contract. Most positions are on continuity, with 88% backing the view that Lai will remain in office through 2026. The market’s resolution terms include resignation, detention, or other circumstances that prevent him from performing presidential duties, with a deadline of December 31, 2026.
Polling data cited in the source points in the same direction. A survey released by Mirror Media-affiliated polling on February 11, 2026 showed Lai’s job approval at 45.5% and disapproval at 41.5%, with approval moving back above disapproval after four months. Trust in Lai was reported at 48.4%. A contemporaneous My-Formosa poll put approval at around 46%, showing a rebound from the lows seen late last year.
Prediction markets are pricing perceived political stability
These two contracts do not only measure whether isolated events happen. They also show how offshore capital is pricing the predictability of Taiwan’s political situation. Trading volume, probability levels, and tightly defined settlement rules all shape that pricing.
The source also warns that people in Taiwan who place bets on Polymarket or other prediction platforms tied to public affairs and political events may face legal risks involving election law, obstruction of public duties, and gambling-related offenses.