Prediction market Polymarket has pushed Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s odds of dropping out of the 2024 U.S. presidential race to 81%, following remarks from his running mate Nicole Shanahan that the campaign is weighing whether to stay in the race or potentially align with Donald Trump.
Dropout expectations surge after Shanahan comments
Shanahan said in a podcast interview that the campaign is considering two main options. One is to remain in the race and use the effort to build a new political movement that could position itself for 2028. The other is to step aside in order to avoid siphoning votes from Trump and potentially helping a Kamala Harris–Walz ticket.
Polymarket traders reacted quickly. At 2:22 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, Kennedy’s odds of exiting the race stood at 73%. By 2:53 p.m. EDT, those odds had climbed to 81%, marking the highest level cited in the report. The move suggests that traders viewed Shanahan’s comments as a serious indication that a withdrawal is under active consideration.
Why crypto observers are paying attention
Kennedy has attracted notable support from parts of the crypto community because of his favorable public stance on digital assets. Over the past year, he appeared at two Bitcoin conferences, voiced support for bitcoin, and criticized the idea of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). As a result, any major change in his campaign has drawn attention beyond mainstream political circles and into crypto markets and communities.
As of Aug. 20, Polymarket showed Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump running even, with each assigned a 49% chance of winning the presidency. Kennedy’s own chances of winning the 2024 general election, meanwhile, were listed at -1%, underscoring how little confidence the market had in an outright independent victory.
Prediction markets as a political signal
The latest swing highlights how prediction markets are increasingly used to gauge shifts in political expectations in real time. While market odds are not election outcomes, they often react quickly to campaign messaging, strategic recalculations, and candidate positioning. For Kennedy, the central question now is whether he continues his independent run to build for the future or exits and moves closer to Trump in a way that could reshape the final stretch of the 2024 race.