TradingBeats, formerly Hyperinsight, said on Aug. 27 that Polymarket trader r1ch4rd is down about 74.9% on a long-term CLARITY bill bet opened in June, and has not sold any of the position. At the same time, after stepping away from Hyperliquid for nearly two months, the trader returned over the past six days and completed nine derivatives trades, all profitable, for combined gains of about $482,400.
CLARITY position remains deeply underwater
According to the monitoring data, r1ch4rd began betting on June 3 that the CLARITY bill would be signed into law in 2026. The trader made 19 purchases in total and accumulated about 33,400 Yes shares at a cost of roughly $19,300, with an average entry probability of about 57.83%.
Part of the position was built when the market probability was still close to 60%. From June 8 to June 11, after the implied probability fell to 46%, the trader added slightly more. By press time, the event probability had dropped to 14.5%, about 43.3 percentage points below the trader’s average entry level. That left the position with an unrealized loss of about $14,500, or roughly 74.9%. No Yes shares have been sold so far.
Hyperliquid trading turned around after a 56-day pause
TradingBeats said r1ch4rd also became active on Hyperliquid, under address 0xe60d, around the same period that the CLARITY position was being built. The early results were weak. From the first prediction-market trade through June 27, the account posted net realized losses of about $305,500 in perpetual futures, with the main losses coming from NEAR, ZEC and the first ETH long.
After June 27, the address stopped trading on Hyperliquid for about 56 days and did not re-enter until Aug. 22. The results after the return were the opposite. Over the past six days, the trader completed nine trades, and every one of them was profitable, producing about $482,400 in total gains.
- Eight ETH long and short trades generated about $473,500 in profit.
- One BTC short earned about $8,897.
The biggest single win came from a 2,450 ETH long opened between Aug. 24 and Aug. 25, which produced about $163,600 in profit. In the latest round, the trader bought ETH at $2,465.5 and fully closed the position this afternoon at $2,484.3, with position size at about $8.903 million, locking in another gain.
Recent derivatives gains far exceed the CLARITY drawdown
By comparison, the current unrealized loss on the CLARITY prediction position stands at about $14,500. TradingBeats said the derivatives profit made in just the past six days was about 33.4 times that floating loss.