Polymarket data shows that the odds of a U.S. Department of Homeland Security shutdown lasting more than 70 days have fallen to 8%, marking a 45% decline over the past 24 hours. Trading activity has remained strong, with volume on the event contract surpassing $1.27 million, underscoring continued market attention on the political standoff.
How the contract is structured
Under the contract terms, the shutdown is measured from February 14, 2026. If the funding lapse continues beyond the specified duration, the market resolves to “Yes.” Otherwise, it settles as “No.” The official end date is determined by the moment the U.S. President signs an appropriation bill into law.
Trump comments reshape market expectations
President Trump said he plans to sign an order to ensure that Department of Homeland Security employees continue receiving salaries. He also thanked House Speaker Johnson and Thune for their efforts and praised Republican lawmakers for making progress toward resolving the shutdown dispute.
The sharp drop in odds suggests traders are reassessing the likelihood of a prolonged shutdown. Trump’s comments appear to have reduced concerns that the impasse will stretch beyond the 70-day threshold, prompting a noticeable repricing on the prediction market.
Prediction markets remain a live policy signal
Polymarket has become an increasingly visible venue for pricing political and macro event risk. The fact that this DHS shutdown contract has attracted more than $1.27 million in volume highlights how crypto-based prediction markets are being used to track shifts in policy expectations in real time. Even so, market pricing reflects trader consensus rather than certainty, meaning odds could still move materially as negotiations and official announcements develop.