The Polymarket prediction market for "Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?" settled on April 10, 2026, after the meeting took place in Beijing. Total volume reached $1,234,614 USDC. All No positions were liquidated to zero, while Yes holders redeemed at $1.00 per share.
Meeting Details Match 2024 Ma-Xi Level
The meeting started at 11 a.m. Beijing time in the Great Hall of the People, with five participants from each side. China sent three Politburo Standing Committee members—Xi Jinping, Wang Huning, and Cai Qi—plus a top economic official and the head of the Taiwan Affairs Office. The KMT delegation included party chair Cheng Li-wun, vice chairs Xiao Xucen, Li Qianlong, Zhang Ronggong, and think tank vice chairman Li Hongyuan. Public remarks lasted 10 minutes, followed by a closed-door session of one hour; the handshake lasted 14 seconds.
Xi outlined four points centered on the "1992 Consensus," opposition to "Taiwan independence," and "national rejuvenation." Cheng used the term "community of shared destiny" for cross-strait relations.
Biggest Loser LBZone Loses $51K Alone
The largest No holder was LBZone with 50,961 shares, now worth zero—a loss of $50,961 USDC (~$165,000 NTD). He alone accounted for a quarter of the top 50 No losses. Other notable losers: livermor3 lost $14,634, LinaBell lost $12,226, 0xrc lost $10,000. The top 50 No holders collectively lost $204,575—all dusted.
These traders held No in a market where Yes was already priced at 99.9¢, effectively betting that a near-certain political meeting would not happen.
Last-Minute Gambler: livermor3's $44 Bet
Second-largest loser livermor3 added to his No position just 13.3 hours before the meeting. At 13:41 UTC on April 9, he bought 5,696 shares at $0.004 and 4,430 shares at $0.005, spending $44.94 for 10,127 shares. Yes was trading above $0.995 at the time. The $44 joined his existing 14,634 No shares—all zeroed.
Winner: Chims Says "Follow Me on Xi, You Never Lose"
Top Yes earner 1111hhhcc held 31,753 shares and collected $31,753. Second was Want88 with $23,177, third PonyY with $17,887. Fourth-place Chims (profile: "follow my trades on President-Xi, you will never lose") held 15,000 Yes shares, cashing $15,000—he was right. Top 50 Yes holders together settled $150,983.
A wallet named "Kuomintang" bought 51 Yes shares at $0.999, just for participation. The comments section included taunts calling No backers "green birds" (a Taiwan political slang term).
Early Exits: Certainty Over Maximization
Some traders sold Yes before settlement. The most aggressive was eightrock, who dumped 12,559 shares at $0.999 just 31 minutes before the meeting started, taking $12,546. ChinesePredict sold 10,421 shares at $0.990 thirteen hours early, netting $10,312. A wallet named thegreatrejuvenationoftheChinesenation sold 4,998 shares at $0.999 two hours after the meeting began, pocketing $4,993. They gave up a few pennies to avoid tail risk—certainty beat maximization.