PPP, a prediction-market tracking tool, said Polymarket traders have raised the implied odds that SpaceX will carry out Starship’s 13th test flight on July 24 to 77%, up 16% over the past 24 hours. In the same monitoring update, the probability for a July 25 Flight 13 attempt climbed to 83%, marking a 35% gain over the same period.
SpaceX had previously said the 13th Starship test flight was pushed back to July 24 because of weather, though it remains unclear whether those weather concerns are still in place. The company also made an earlier launch attempt on July 17, but that try ended before liftoff after some Raptor engines did not start as expected, triggering the automatic launch abort system.
According to the report cited by ChainCatcher, SpaceX is now heavily focused on Starship and has already begun turning down commercial Falcon launch orders scheduled for after 2028.
ChainCatcher reported that PPP, a prediction-market tracking tool, showed Polymarket odds for SpaceX to conduct Starship’s 13th test flight on July 24 had risen to 77%, up 16% in the past 24 hours.
In the same market, the probability of the 13th Starship test flight taking place on July 25 rose to 83%, a 35% increase over 24 hours.
Launch timing remains uncertain
SpaceX had previously said the 13th Starship test flight was postponed to July 24 because of weather. It is still unclear whether those weather issues remain.
Earlier attempt on July 17 was aborted
SpaceX made its first attempt at Starship’s 13th test flight on July 17. That attempt failed after some Raptor engines did not ignite as expected, which triggered the automatic launch abort system.
Starship is now the company’s main focus
According to the report, SpaceX is now fully focused on Starship and has started declining commercial Falcon rocket launch orders for dates after 2028.
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