Polymarket has partnered with Nasdaq Private Market to launch prediction markets tied to private-company performance and milestones. Traders will be able to buy and sell outcome shares linked to valuation thresholds, IPO timing and changes in secondary-market pricing. Settlement for those contracts will rely on data supplied by Nasdaq Private Market, creating a new reference point for a part of finance that has traditionally offered limited price transparency.
Settlement built on verified primary and secondary transaction data
According to Reuters and company statements, Nasdaq Private Market will act as the “resolution data provider” under an exclusive agreement. It will supply verified data covering primary and secondary transactions in private companies. The firms said the new markets will focus on valuation milestones, when a company goes public, and activity in the secondary market. Once outcomes are known, transaction-based pricing from Nasdaq Private Market will be used to settle the contracts.
Rodolfo Sanchez, vice president of data at Nasdaq Private Market, said the arrangement sends information both ways. Institutional-grade company data anchors the contracts at the start, while trading activity on Polymarket becomes a live signal that institutional investors can monitor for shifts in private-company expectations. That turns order flow on the platform into more than speculation; it also adds another layer to price discovery.
Prediction markets keep moving beyond crypto-native use cases
Polymarket has built its business around trading on real-world outcomes, from elections and Federal Reserve decisions to crypto prices, sports and technology launches. Prices on the platform are quoted between 0 and 100 cents, reflecting the implied probability of an event. The report said monthly prediction-market volume has climbed to about $23.9 billion, with roughly 191 million transactions recorded in March alone, a 2,800% year-on-year increase.
The deal also comes as Polymarket itself is attracting major private-market interest. Reuters recently reported that the company is in talks to raise around $400 million at a valuation of roughly $15 billion. Earlier, Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest up to $2 billion in 2025 at an $8 billion pre-money valuation. Alongside its exclusive data agreement with Dow Jones and ongoing regulatory engagement in the United States, the move shows prediction markets gaining a firmer place inside mainstream finance.
A new benchmark for opaque private-company pricing
For private markets, the partnership brings a more public layer of expectation into a process that has long been difficult to observe from the outside. If traders consistently price a company’s IPO timing or valuation path differently from internal marks or secondary trades, that gap may become a benchmark in its own right. Investors, founders and employees could end up watching crowd-priced signals on unicorns much more closely than before.