Polymarket trader “xm39” has escalated bets on a US invasion of Iran by 2027, buying 274,500 shares across three trades at probabilities of 14%, 15% and 16%, for a total outlay of about $41,700. The account now holds 642,300 Yes shares, with cumulative costs of roughly $127,100 and an unrealized loss of about $27,600.
In a separate move, a linked address added roughly 28,400 WTI short contracts worth about $2.401 million. As oil prices extended gains, the address liquidated all 107,400 short contracts at 09:01 at an average price of $84.86, booking an realized loss of approximately $131,500. About ten minutes later, the trader flipped from short to long, buying around 64,700 WTI contracts. The position now stands at 20x full margin, worth about $5.531 million, with an unrealized gain of $18,200 and a margin return of 6.6%. The liquidation price sits at $64.88.
The activity comes amid renewed US-Iran clashes, with prediction market activity surging on geopolitical tensions.
A Polymarket trader known as “xm39” is doubling down on a highly specific geopolitical prediction: a US invasion of Iran before 2027. The account recently executed three purchases totaling 274,500 shares in the “US to invade Iran by 2027” market, filling at probabilities of 14%, 15%, and 16%. Combined, the trades cost roughly $41,700.
With these additions, xm39 now holds 642,300 Yes shares. Total cost basis sits near $127,100, which translates to an unrealized loss of about $27,600 at current prices.
A linked address tied to the same trader has been actively trading WTI futures. In a contrarian move, it added roughly 28,400 short contracts, with a notional value around $2.401 million. Oil prices kept climbing, however. At 09:01, the address fully closed its entire short book of 107,400 contracts, exiting at an average price of $84.86. The result: a realized loss of approximately $131,500.
About ten minutes later, the trader flipped direction. The address began buying WTI contracts, accumulating roughly 64,700 contracts. The position is now running on 20x full margin and is worth about $5.531 million. Unrealized gains stand at $18,200, representing a margin return of 6.6%. If prices fall badly, the liquidation price is $64.88.
The flurry of activity comes as US and Iranian forces exchange fire once again, keeping oil markets on edge and driving demand for geopolitical prediction contracts.
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